2 Insiders Project $500 Million Contract for Dodgers’ Tarik Skubal in Free Agency

It's nice being the most talented free agent pitcher on the market. Tarik Skubal might not be able to dictate his terms entirely — MLB's next labor deal could have something to say about his next contract — but he should be happier with the years and dollars than any free agent this offseason.

Will Skubal sign a shorter-term contract for a higher average annual value? A longer-term contract for more money, but less dollars per year? Will the timing of when Skubal signs (before or after the expected Dec. 1 lockout) help or hurt his bargaining power? Can the Dodgers afford Skubal if MLB owners get the salary cap they're asking for?

All of these questions are pertinent in October. The uncertainty is reflected in a wide range of salary predictions expressed in a new ESPN industry survey.

On the low end of the 27 predictions given to Kiley McDaniel: four years and $176 million, a $44 million per year average that would top the record $43.3 million Max Scherzer got from 2022-24.

On the high end: one prediction of nine years and $500 million, and another of 10 years and $500 million. Both would shatter the AAV and total contract value records for a pitcher.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto's 12-year, $325 million contract with the Dodgers is the largest ever for a pitcher. When he signed that deal in December 2023, Yamamoto was 25. Skubal will be 30 in November.

Even if agent Scott Boras can successfully convince an executive to invest in a pitcher through age 40 or beyond, crafting a contract of that length that makes sense for a team poses a challenge for any agent.

With Skubal, expect a nonsensical contract.

It matters less, perhaps, whether the left-hander is worthy of Juan Soto (15 years, $765 million), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (14 years, $500 million) or Shohei Ohtani (10 years, $700 million) money. What matters more is the gap between Skubal and the next-best available pitcher on the market, and the urgency of the teams who need pitching to mortgage the future for the present.

The only thing that can stop greed, and a physical showing clean ligaments in Skubal's elbow and shoulder, is a salary cap.

If the lockout ends with a hard limit on how much teams can spend on players — and a floor that requires some teams to spend significantly more on players than they have committed to this point — all bets are off. For now, most — but not all — of the industry suggests taking the under on $500 million.