3 Keys to the Sabres Having a Successful California Road Trip

The Buffalo Sabres have a pedestrian 4-4-3 record to start the season, with 11 points and sitting last in the Atlantic Division. On the bright side, they have earned points in five of their last six games, going 2-1-3, including a 4-3 loss to the Washington Capitals in overtime on Saturday.

They begin a big California trip on Tuesday, travelling to San Jose to take on the Sharks, with puck drop slated for 10:30 p.m. ET. Then, on Thursday, they head to Anaheim to face the Ducks, with puck drop slated for 10:00 p.m. ET. Finally, they end the trip in Los Angeles to take on the Kings, with puck drop slated for 4:00 p.m. ET.

Fans are frustrated after losing the Connor Hellebuyck sweepstakes to the New Jersey Devils on Friday, so the Sabres need a successful road trip to ease the tension. Here are three ways they can do that.

The Sabres’ special teams have been among the worst in the league so far, with their power play running at a 10.5% success rate (31st) and the penalty kill at 69.2% (27th). Both have even cost the team games.

They have the talent to pull it together on this road trip, as the Kings have the worst penalty kill in the league at 63.3%, the Ducks are 21st at 76.2%, and the Sharks have the best penalty kill of the three teams, ranked 15th in the NHL at 80.5%.

With Rasmus Dahlin quarterbacking the first power-play unit, along with Tage Thompson, Jason Zucker, Jack Quinn, and Zach Benson, there is no reason for it to be struggling, and a benchmark of 20% would be a fine success rate.

As for the penalty kill, they’ve allowed at least one goal in nine of 11 games. According to Money Puck, they rank 24th in the league in expected goals against (xGA) on the penalty kill (8.25). Meaning, it’s not just goaltending that is struggling, but also the players in front of them, and many times a player is left wide open in front of the net for an easy tap-in. That must stop, or the Sabres will find themselves in a big hole by November. (All MoneyPuck Stats can be found here.)

The Sabres rank 23rd in the NHL in goals for per game (2.82). That’s not good enough. The goaltending has received a lot of criticism, but the main issue is inconsistent goal scoring. After a hot start, Thompson has two points in his last five games. Josh Doan, Josh Norris, and Ryan McLeod have a combined nine points in 33 games combined. They need to produce more offense, and it must start on the road trip.

Outside of Jack Quinn, Noah Ostlund, and Owen Power, the scoring has been up and down throughout the lineup. Granted, the team is getting a lot of chances. According to Money Puck, their expected goals for on the season is 34.34, with 31. If they improve their scoring now, they should be able to replicate last season.

The Sabres have had among the worst goaltending in the league, and they have been mediocre defensively. According to Money Puck, the team has an xGA of 36.06 (15th), allowing 40 goals and ranked 29th in the NHL with 3.64 goals against per game. Not only is the team allowing too many scoring chances, but they also need a big save from time to time, and they’re just not getting it.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has a goals-against average (GAA) of 3.56 and a save percentage (SV%) of .866 through nine games. He sits 55th in the league in SV%, and in goals saved above expected (GSAx), he is 61st at -3.6. Those numbers need to improve on this road trip if the team wants to stay afloat in the Atlantic.

As for Colten Ellis, he has played three games with a GAA of 3.19, a SV% of .864, and a GSAx of 0.3. Right now, he is the team’s backup, but he is slated to start against the Sharks tonight and will have to come up big.

The team’s defensive play is a problem. The Sabres are giving away too many scoring chances with wide-open players in front of the net, odd-man rushes, executing poor defensive coverage and missing assignments. They’ll be facing some talented players on this road trip, like Macklin Celebrini, Leo Carlsson, and Cutter Gauthier. They need to limit scoring chances if they want to win at least two of the three games.

There is no doubt the team will get more production from players who are off to a slow start this season, including the goaltenders. They have to get off on the right foot in California if they want to get out of the bottom of the division or slide down further.