AFL Brownlow 2026: Club by club guide to all 18 teams, best Brownlow Medal chance, odds, value bets, predictor, favourites, picks, latest news

The AFL’s most prestigious individual award will have its 113th winner on Monday, with the 2026 Brownlow Medallist to be crowned at Crown Palladium.

Given Collingwood’s Nick Daicos is the unbackable favourite to salute for the first time in his career, many punters will be keeping a close watch on who polls best for each club.

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This is Foxfooty.com.au’s guide to every club’s Brownlow count, including each team’s best chances to poll the most votes for their team, and Sportsbet odds (correct as of Sunday, 20 September at 8am AEST).

CHEAT SHEET: Round-by-round breakdown of the EIGHT players who should poll best

STATS GUIDE: Staggering 50-vote reality making Daicos hottest Brownlow favourite ever... and how he can still lose

BROWNLOW MEDAL ULTIMATE GUIDE: Daicos’ 98 per cent reality as AFL’s night of nights looms

Nobody should really stand in the way of Jordan Dawson ($1.40) to win the Crows’ tally, with the Adelaide captain tipped by Champion Data’s Brownlow Medal predictor to finish sixth overall in the count. Despite devastating personal circumstances, Dawson notched his best disposals-per-game mark since 2023, and had eight games where he totalled 26+ disposals and the Crows won. His only genuine competition for votes is livewire Izak Rankine ($2.70), who had a truly scorching second half of the season. But missed games will hurt him. After that, there’s a massive gap to midfielder Sam Berry and halfback Wayne Milera (both $151).

An interesting count looms from a Lions perspective, with prodigious dual Norm Smith medallist Will Ashcroft ($1.40) and dual Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale ($2.75) the only real possibilities to win the club count, and Zac Bailey ($151) way out as next-favoured. Champion’s predictor believes Neale will finish fourth in the overall count, over six votes ahead of midfield companion Ashcroft, whereas the excellent Wheelo Ratings projection system has the youngster almost three votes ahead and has shorter odds to pip the veteran. There could be value in Neale, who’s clearly been a favourite of umpires in the past and who eclipsed 30+ disposals in 11 games this season.

With Sportsbet not providing a price for runaway Blues favourite Patrick Cripps, who averaged the second-most contested possessions in the competition, Sam Walsh ($1.20) is next-likeliest to poll best for Carlton on Monday night. Walsh collected 30 or more disposals in seven wins/draws this year. The hard-nosed midfielder is expected to tally well in the second half of the season, when the Blues got on their winning run, with Rising Star winner Jagga Smith ($6) next in line but a fair way back. Smith could be challenged by George Hewett ($7.50), whose uncompromising style of play will be looked favourably upon.

Sportsbet isn’t giving a price for unbackable Brownlow Medal favourite Nick Daicos, with an interesting low-vote race for second looming at the Magpies. Veteran Jordan De Goey ($1.62) had a resurgent campaign, with his votes expected to come from the middle portion of the season. He recorded at least 20 disposals and a goal in four Collingwood wins in 2026. Outside ball-user Josh Daicos ($3) shapes as a challenger, however, and expect any votes to come from late in the season. Meanwhile, ruckman Darcy Cameron ($9) is further behind, and the Gold Coast-bound Scott Pendlebury ($26) is a true outsider.

Outgoing ex-captain Zach Merrett ($1.33) will be hard to beat at the Bombers, flexing his inside-outside blend. Wheelo predicts his votes to come from various parts of the season. But don’t rule out the likes of Sam Durham ($6), Archie Roberts ($8) and Darcy Parish ($10), who could bob up in what will be a low-polling Essendon race. Despite only playing 14 senior games this year, Parish, tipped by Wheelo to finish just 1.5 votes behind Merrett, could be good value. He’s predicted to poll in two games, and possibly a third.

The Dockers race is set to go down to the wire, paving the way for a big value opportunity. Luke Jackson ($1.91) is the betting favourite to take out the Fremantle gong after a stellar campaign, with highly-regarded midfielders Caleb Serong ($2.88) and Andrew Brayshaw ($7.50) trailing the hybrid ruckman. But intriguingly, Wheelo projects Brayshaw to win a tight count, tipped to finish with 16.1 votes to Serong’s 15.2 and Jackson’s 14.9. Brayshaw recorded 25 or more disposals in 12 Dockers wins this year. Champion’s model, meanwhile, believes Serong (18.8) will pip Brayshaw (17.0), and thinks Shai Bolton ($13) will beat Jackson to round out the club’s top three.

Sportsbet isn’t providing a price for runaway Cats favourites Bailey Smith and Max Holmes, leaving forward-half sensation Shaun Mannagh ($1.20) with the shortest odds to finish next in line. The 29-year-old booted three or more goals in six Geelong wins this season. All-Australian winger Oliver Dempsey ($5.50) could trouble him for votes as one of Geelong’s highest-impact players this year, while Jeremy Cameron ($15) should have his name called out but missed too much footy to challenge here.

Reigning Brownlow medallist Matt Rowell ($1.91) doesn’t find himself in the top 20 of Champion’s nor Wheelo’s overall predicted count, but he’s the favourite to finish as the highest vote-getting Sun. Rowell put up at least 23 disposals and five clearances in four Suns wins this season. First-year recruit Christian Petracca ($2.70) shapes as his most likely challenger, while captain Noah Anderson ($6) should also be around the mark. But Wheelo’s model predicts the star trio to finish within 2.6 votes of each other, and Anderson pipped Rowell and Petracca in the club’s best-and-fairest count, so it should be a fascinating race on Monday night.

Lewis: 'That's the wrong call' | 01:02

The impressive Giants debut season of Clayton Oliver ($1.72) is set to be recognised on Monday night, with the premiership player favoured to finish as his club’s highest vote-getter. But while he’s at longer Sportsbet odds, Wheelo favours his midfield companion Finn Callaghan ($3.75) by 0.3 votes. While both are expected to poll earlier in the season, Callaghan’s injury absence later in the year could undo his chances — and the umpires love contested players. Outgoing skipper Toby Greene ($4.50) could challenge the ball-getting duo.

Sportsbet isn’t providing a price for standout Hawks favourite Jai Newcombe, who’s predicted to be entrenched in the top 10 on Monday night. Evergreen veteran Jack Gunston ($2.25) and exhilarating small forward Nick Watson ($2.75) are the best chances of finishing with the next-most Hawks votes. Gunston kicked 59 goals in 17 games and will be rewarded for four bags of five goals, one six-goal haul, and one seven-goal special. Watson, meanwhile, kicked three or more goals in nine Hawthorn wins in 2026. Jarman Impey ($6) and Connor Macdonald ($7) should also have their names read out.

Captain Max Gawn ($1.40) is the favourite to finish as the best Melbourne poller, with Champion predicting second favourite Kysaiah Pickett ($2.63) to finish with 10 fewer votes. However, there might be some value in the dynamic Pickett, whose game-winning impact in several games this year was undeniable, with Wheelo’s model suggesting there might only be one vote in the Gawn-Pickett race. Pickett tallied at least 20 disposals and a goal in eight Demons victories this year. Otherwise, there’s a large gap to midfielder Tom Sparrow ($101).

Sportsbet is only taking bets on top midfielders Harry Sheezel ($1.30) and Luke Davies-Uniacke ($3.25) to have the most Kangaroos votes. Both should poll decently well throughout the opening portion of the season, but it might be the middle part of the campaign that sees Sheezel create some separation. In each of the Roos’ four wins between Rounds 11-16, Sheezel racked up 31+ disposals. Wheelo has tipped a five-vote margin from Sheezel to Davies-Uniacke, while Champion predicts it’ll be slightly closer but will still fall in Sheezel’s favour.

Uncompromising midfielder Jason Horne-Francis ($1.45) is favoured to top the Port Adelaide voting on Monday night, with the outgoing Zak Butters ($2.63) missing six games at the back end of the season. Horne-Francis finished five votes clear of Butters to win Port Adelaide’s John Cahill Medal, but both Champion and Wheelo’s models predict the stars’ race to be within one vote — making Butters the value pick.

Sportsbet considers Tim Taranto the unbackable Richmond favourite, with contested ball-winner Jack Ross ($2.75) and versatile big man Noah Balta ($2.75) tied favourites to finish with the next-highest tally. Balta might be the better bet, given Champion’s model predicts him to finish second to Taranto with 3.3 votes. Ascending forward Seth Campbell ($8) and premiership rebounder Jayden Short ($10) are next in line but appear less likely to poll on Monday night, given Richmond’s struggles this year.

Sportsbet has scrapped the market for runaway Saints favourite Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, who should comfortably poll the most votes for his club. Ascending forward-midfielder Max Hall ($1.25) is the short-priced favourite to finish with the next-highest tally, followed by Brad Hill ($7) and Hugo Garcia ($10). But Garcia could be the value pick of the bunch, given Champion’s model predicts he’ll finish with 10.7 votes as the second-best Saint after ‘Nas’. Garcia recorded 25 or more disposals in seven St Kilda wins this season.

Lions survive thriller to stay alive | 04:43

Isaac Heeney ($1.17) will take some beating for the most Swans votes, tipped by Wheelo to finish right on the cusp of the overall count’s top 10. However, Chad Warner ($5) appears the value pick, with Champion tipping him to poll four more votes than Heeney. In eight Sydney wins this year, Warner logged 20+ disposals and two or more goals. Errol Gulden ($26) is the outsider, but his impact since returning to full health can’t be denied and will earn umpire recognition.

Sportsbet isn’t giving a price for runaway Eagles favourite Harley Reid, who comfortably won this year’s John Worsfold Medal. Veteran midfielder Tim Kelly ($1.91) and key forward Jake Waterman ($3) shape as the likeliest to finish next in line, with Waterman pipping Kelly for second place in West Coast’s best-and-fairest count. Waterman kicked three or more goals in three of West Coast’s four wins this season. Bailey J. Williams ($9.50) could also poll.

Excluding runaway Dogs favourites Marcus Bontempelli and Ed Richards, for whom Sportsbet isn’t providing markets, the hard-nosed Matthew Kennedy ($3.25) is favoured to finish third in the club count. But it’s expected to be close between him, spearhead Aaron Naughton ($4), and midfielders Joel Freijah ($6) and Ryley Sanders ($6). Wheelo predicts Kennedy, Naughton and Dale to finish within one vote of each other.