Alexander Zverev is a massive favorite in Round 4 of the U.S. Open.

The 2026 U.S. Open has been anything but easy for No. 1-ranked Alexander Zverev, as he was nearly upset in each of the first two rounds, going to five sets against both Lorenzo Sonego and Quentin Halys.

After a straight-set win in Round 3, he takes on a familiar foe in Luciano Darderi in Round 4 on Monday night. Darderi – the No. 21 ranked player in the tournament – has dropped just two sets on his way to his first-ever fourth-round appearance at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.

With Carlos Alcaraz looking as dominant as ever on the other side of the bracket, Zverev needs to turn his game around a bit if he wants to match up with the No. 2-ranked player in the U.S. Open final.

A tough match is ahead, as Zverev lost to Darderi earlier this year and is ust 1-1 against him in his career.

Despite that, oddsmakers have set the No. 1-ranked player as a -1280 favorite in this fourth-round match.

Let’s take a look at the odds, each player’s path in this U.S. Open and my prediction for Monday’s showdown.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Zverev and Dardieri have met twice before, once in 2024 at the ATP Masters 1000 Rome and again in the same tournament in 2026.

Zverev won the first meeting (7-6, 6-2), but Dardieri took their matchup earlier this year despite the fact that he dropped the first set 1-6. He then rebounded to win 7-6, 6-0 the next two sets.

That makes this a very interesting fourth-round battle, especially since Zverev was forced to a fifth set in each of the first two rounds of this tournament.

The 2026 U.S. Open has been far from a perfect showing from Zverev. He needed five sets to take down both Sonego and Halys before a three-set victory over No. 25 Alejandro Tabilo in Round 3.

Zverev has several quarterfinal or better appearances at the U.S. Open in his career, but he’s looked vulnerable to an upset so far in this tournament. The 2026 French Open winner, Zverev has made the semis of every Grand Slam in 2026.

So, it would be pretty shocking to see him go out this early, but he’s lost to Darderi once already this year.

Darderi has took down Dane Sweeny in straight sets in the third round to make his first-ever fourth-round appearance in the U.S. Open.

The 24-year-old has not made a single Grand Slam final in his career, making a fourth-round appearance at the Australian Open earlier in 2026. He struggled at both the French Open (second-round exit) and Wimbledon (first-round exit), but he has some success against Zverev to lean on in this match.

Zverev has been extremely shaky in this tournament, and I’m not putting a ton of stock into his third-round win over Tabilo.

The German has dropped the second set in two of his three matches in this tournament, and he’s already had some nervous moments against Darderi, going to a tiebreak against him in 2024 before losing back-to-back sets in their lone meeting in 2026.

Darderi has never made a Grand Slam quarterfinal, but I do think there’s a path for him to win a set on Monday.

Zverev is such a big favorite (-1280) that it almost doesn’t make sense to bet on him unless you’re expecting a victory in straight sets. From what we’ve seen in the 2026 U.S. Open, that is far from a guarantee for the No. 1-ranked player, especially in this matchup.

Darderi has played well so far in the U.S. Open, and he did have a quarterfinal appearance last month at the National Bank Open. I think he’s worth a look at -110 to steal at least one set on Monday.

Pick: Luciano Darderi to Win at Least One Set (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $150 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.