Bengals vs. Dolphins Score Prediction for NFL Week 5 (Bengals Should Roll in Sneaky Must-Win Game)

Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals set out to snap a two-game skid on Sunday against the winless Miami Dolphins.

It’s been a rough go for Malik Willis and the Dolphins, as they've yet to score more than 13 points in a game and lost to a Minnesota team that didn’t score a touchdown in Week 4.

Miami is a major underdog at home in this matchup, even though the Bengals were banged up in their Week 4 loss to Jacksonville with both Ja’Marr Chase (concussion) and Tee Higgins (adductor) going down. Still, Joe Burrow threw for over 400 yards in the loss, and he should be able to lead the Bengals to a win on the road in this matchup.

In fact, this feels like a must-win game for the Bengals, as they’ve fallen back to 2-2 and the rest of the AFC North is either 2-2 or better through four weeks. Losing to a Miami team that seems destined for the worst record in the league would be a major blow to Cincy’s playoff hopes.

All season long, the SI Betting team is using the latest odds to predict the final score of each matchup, a fun way to help bettors decide on spread, moneyline and total bets. Plus, who doesn’t want to get a final score exactly right?

The Bengals happen to be my Survivor selection in Week 5, so let’s jump right into the odds and my score prediction for this AFC clash.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

The Bengals opened up as 7.5-point favorites in Week 5, but they are down to seven-point favorites with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins banged up. The total has also come down from 43.5 to 42.5.

This week, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan continued his Road to 272, where he picks every game, every week through the NFL season. In this game, he’s betting on Cincinnati to cover:

The Bengals have looked completely average to begin the season, but we can forgive them based on their schedule. Three of their first four opponents have come against playoff teams from a season ago, and their fourth was a Buccaneers team that entered the season as favorites to win their division. Now, they finally have a bad team to beat up on, and even if they don't have both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins back in the lineup, I have confidence in their ability to win and cover in this spot.

It's worth noting that the Cincinnati defense has looked improved this season compared to recent years, ranking in the top half of the NFL in both opponent EPA per play and success rate.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins are looking worse every week. They're in the bottom five of virtually every single metric on both sides of the ball. It's hard to imagine them hanging with this Bengals team.

I’m on the same page as MacMillan, as I think the Bengals are one of the best teams to bet on to win in Week 5.

Simply put, the Dolphins are one of the worst teams in the league, scoring 13 or fewer points in all four of their games while ranking 29th in EPA/Play on offense and 28th in EPA/Play on defense. With De’Von Achane out for the season, there isn’t a single Miami weapon that really worries me against a Bengals team that has been average defensively (14th in EPA/Play, 19th in success rate) through four games.

There’s a chance Cincy is short-handed on Sunday, but it shouldn’t matter against an offense that can’t seem to score enough to really compete with any playoff-caliber team.

Final Score Prediction: Bengals 24, Dolphins 13

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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