Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today for Week 4 (Bet the UNDER in Chiefs vs. Raiders)

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Bet the UNDER in NFL Week 4 action between the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect Every week, myself and the rest of the SI betting team writes about our favorite bets for every single NFL game.

In fact, you can find all of those plays in the If you missed those articles and just want a few of my top bets on sides and totals for today's action, don't worry; I'll simplify things. In this article, I'll give you my best bet on a favorite, an underdog, and a total for today's slate of games. Don't bet on Chicago just because Case Keenum looked good on Monday Night Football.

These stories happen once a year, and while a backup quarterback can look amazing in his first start, he rarely sustains that level of play. I have to give the Jets credit for how they've played to begin the season. They aren't a playoff team, but they rank average to above average in many areas on both sides of the ball, and their special teams remain one of the league's best.

If Keenum doesn't repeat his Week 3 performance, the Jets are going to be live to win this game. The Raiders' defense continues to be one of the best in the NFL to start the year, ranking second in opponent EPA per play and eighth in opponent success rate. They've also allowed just 5.2 yards per snap.

The Kansas City defense has also been elite, ranking third in opponent yards per play , while also ranking sixth in both opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate. I understand this is a game that Patrick Mahomes will be playing in, but other than that, I'm surprised by the total of 47.5. Both defenses have been top-10 units, so I expect this total to go UNDER. I'm still buying in on the Lions.

They're going to start to get healthy on defense, and I still believe the betting market isn't evaluating them fairly. They have had the second-worst defensive luck through the first three weeks, according toMeanwhile, last week showed me that maybe I was too quick to give Bryce Young credit after a hot start. He had a bad outing against the Cleveland Browns, so I don't think we can pencil in the Panthers racking up points against the Lions on Sunday.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Originally from Nova Scotia, Iain MacMillan is a senior editor covering betting, with a focus on NFL, NHL, and golf. He hosts the Bacon Bets Podcast and has been featured on VSIN, BetQL and Monumental Sports Network. He is a member of the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association and his beloved Falcons and Maple Leafs break his heart on a yearly basis.

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