Best prediction markets for UFC 331: What are the Kalshi prices for Van vs. Pantoja?

The UFC heads back to Las Vegas, Nev., this weekend with a stacked card headlined by two of MMA’s most exciting flyweights. It should be an epic night of fights, with multiple bouts fans believe could contend for “Fight of the Night.”

On this page, I highlight the best prediction markets for UFC 331 and explain the various outcomes that could play out on fight night and how to use the best UFC prediction markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket, to make your predictions.

NOTE: The Polymarket US and Kalshi prices below were accurate at the time of writing and are subject to change.

Price: $0.57 on Polymarket US

The main event of UFC 331 is expected to be a barnburner. It’s a rematch between Joshua Van and Alexandra Pantoja, who last fought in December 2025. That bout ended after Pantoja injured his arm while falling to the canvas in the first round.

Joshua Van now looks to prove that his championship status is no fluke.

In many fans’ eyes, that is already the case. He successfully defended his 125-pound title with a hugely impressive fifth-round TKO over Tatsuro Taira last May. In that bout, Van showed some of the most impressive boxing seen in MMA, with pinpoint combinations to the head and body round after round.

Those boxing skills are exactly what could earn Van the victory this Saturday night. Pantoja has faced adversity against strikers before, and Joshua has the takedown defense to keep this bout on the feet over five rounds.

Price: $0.43 on Polymarket US

Alexandre Pantoja never truly received the recognition as one of MMA’s best fighters during his championship reign. He captured the flyweight title in mid-2023 and defended his belt four times against the division’s elite contenders.

Were it not for the aforementioned arm injury last year, he might still hold this championship belt.

Pantoja is the definition of a well-rounded mixed martial artist, with great kickboxing skills and elite jiu-jitsu skills. He is not afraid to compete anywhere, yet tends to find the most success when he drags opponents to the mat and gets to their back.

Pantoja will likely look to implement his grappling attacks in Saturday’s main event. He will likely entertain some exchanges on the feet with Van, yet there is no doubt that his clearest path to victory will be to secure a takedown and look for the 13th submission win of his professional career.

Probability: 72% to win on Kalshi

For many hardcore MMA fans, the co-main event of UFC 331 is the most intriguing bout of the card. It is easy to see why, as two of the most exciting fighters at 155 pounds compete in what can be the No. 1 contender bout. Kalshi users favor Arman Tsarukyan, and it’s not difficult to see why.

Tsarukyan already should have competed for a world championship. He hasn’t lost a bout since 2022, earning impressive wins over fighters like Charles Oliveira and Dan Hooker. “Batman” has not competed in the Octagon since late 2025, but he’s remained incredibly active in amateur wrestling.

It seems almost a guarantee that Arman will utilize his world-class wrestling skills this Saturday night. He is arguably the best wrestler in the lightweight division and unloads ferocious strikes once he gets opponents to the mat.

Tsarukyan’s submission skills have improved dramatically in recent years. If he can get Ruffy to the mat, he will almost certainly look to grab onto a choke to claim his spot as the next challenger to the lightweight throne.

It has been years since MMA fans have seen a striker with Mauricio Ruffy’s dynamic skills. The 30-year-old is 5-1 in the UFC, most recently earning a first-round TKO win over Michael Chandler at the UFC White House event.

Ruffy suffered a major setback in late 2025 against Benoit Saint Denis. He has rebounded incredibly well since then, earning back-to-back stoppages to solidify his status as a threat to the 155-pound belt.

Being pulled into grappling exchanges is the last thing that Ruffy wants in this bout. He has been working on his takedown defense and will do everything possible to remain upright for the entirety of this bout.

On the feet, there is no doubt that Ruffy can score a knockout. He has a variety of kicking techniques, including a spinning wheel kick that has put multiple fighters unconscious. Ruffy will need to stay on the outside and use those kicks to earn the victory.

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