Blackhawks' season could follow one of two paths: 2025-26 Sharks or 2021-22 Hawks

The Blackhawks begin a seven-game homestand Saturday that might determine the trajectory of their season.

With the Hawks at 1-4-0, the season hasn’t started with much success. But their play has improved substantially in the last two games. Time will tell whether that’s a blip or the beginning of a broader trend.

If it’s the latter, this Hawks season could follow a trajectory similar to the 2025-26 Sharks’ season. If it’s the former, it could play out more like the 2021-22 Hawks season.

It also could end up in the middle, of course. But considering October is prime overreaction time around the NHL, it’s worth examining the two extreme possibilities.

Last season was the fourth in a row that the Sharks began with a losing streak of five games or longer — a remarkable stat. When they were 0-4-2 after six games, nobody batted an eye.

They had conceded 29 goals in the six games, and their analytics were no better. They had a 37.0% expected-goals ratio and 40.4% scoring-chance ratio in five-on-five play.

Then a wild 6-5 overtime victory against the Rangers in their seventh game jump-started an 8-2-1 hot streak that raised eyebrows around the league and, looking back, marked the moment the Sharks’ rebuild turned a corner.

They ultimately flirted with the playoffs deep into March, wooed fans with an exciting playing style, established Macklin Celebrini as a superstar and finished 39-35-8, equating to a 34-point improvement from 2024-25.

The Hawks and Sharks have been compared ad nauseam in recent years, and even though the Sharks’ surge last season pushed them ahead in that debate, the Hawks theoretically could catch up this season. They have the youth, talent and potential to do so if things start clicking.

And what would be a more logical time for things to start clicking than a long homestand after settling into the season?

The Hawks’ lineup has found some chemistry, former top-three picks Artyom Levshunov and Anton Frondell seem to be developing steadily and it’s possible Connor Bedard could return by the end of the month.

Four of the opponents coming to Chicago — the Hurricanes, Stars, Canadiens and Panthers — are tough, but the Sharks beat the Wild twice and the Avalanche once during their hot streak last fall. That’s simply what it takes to ascend the hierarchy.

Anton Frondell (left) has been a bright spot for the Blackhawks so far.

Most Hawks fans will be familiar with this comparison, and it won’t bring back pleasant memories.

The Hawks entered 2021-22 with a radically reshuffled lineup (headlined by Seth Jones and Marc-Andre Fleury) and immediately embarrassed themselves.

They lost their first nine games and were 1-9-2 on Nov. 6 when then-interim general manager Kyle Davidson fired then-coach Jeremy Colliton.

Granted, dark clouds hung over the 2021-22 Hawks team that aren’t relevant to the 2026-27 Hawks. Former GM Stan Bowman had resigned Oct. 26 during the fallout from a sexual-assault scandal, and Colliton had run an exhausting training camp that predictably backfired.

But the Hawks’ analytics when Colliton got axed — 41.0% expected-goals ratio and 43.3% scoring-chance ratio — actually were slightly better than the current Hawks’ ratios of 37.8% and 40.8%, respectively.

Interim coach Derek King took over and mildly improved the vibes for the rest of a hopeless, purposeless season, which the Hawks finished 28-42-12.

For now, Davidson and Hawks coach Jeff Blashill have much stronger job security than Bowman and Colliton did. With portions of the fan base already expressing frustration, however, that might change if 2026-27 plays out even half as disastrously as 2021-22 did.

The coming weeks should make it clearer in which direction this season will go, for better or worse.