Caleb Williams on the run last year in the season opener with the Vikings.

Back when the schedule first came out everyone took shots at predicting the week-by-week results for a given team, and the Bears looked capable of double-digit wins based on Ben Johnson's offensive expertise.

The league's toughest schedule according to opposing 2025 winning percentages didn't look like enough to slow down what Johnson had built at Halas Hall with Caleb Williams.

Those winning percentages and preseason schedule ratings frequently mean little, anyway, because teams can change drastically from year to year in the NFL. Before last season, the Bears' schedule was ranked tied for second toughest at .571, but when it ended they actually had played the fourth easiest schedule.

The league's toughest winning percentage for this year is still standing out there as an arbitrary number but things have changed. They've changed a great deal since the schedule first came out. Those predictions were made without the ingredients put into the mix, or more specifically the full roster.

the call it the Bears Tax

and we'll see if it's repealed in a few days

the last 4 years, Bears opponents vs Chicago's DEF had the:

#1 fewest penalties#1 fewest penalty yards

meanwhile, the Bears offense was awarded the #1 fewest 1st downs via penaltyhttps://t.co/UIths3qU7s

Now we know what's involved on all ends. What has changed most for the Bears is the loss of a key component on defense in safety Coby Bryant. They have not successfully replaced him. It's obvious. They also have not adequately replaced Kyler Gordon, the football player who would not heal.

Meanwhile, their offensive challenge in personnel remains the same. They can't be sure about left tackle, and actually center. Garrett Bradbury looks like an acceptable center but is he going to be close to the level of Drew Dalman last year when the Bears finished third in rushing and limited opponents to 24 sacks?

So, taking into account everything that happened since schedules came out, here's how the Bears now look on a week-by-week basis in 2026. They definitely won't have a problem breaking all team offensive records. And they'll also find out what all of that offense is really worth when you can't stop someone else.

From the source Bears fans, it's the first #ForecastFriday of the year! What's your record prediction for Chicago this year?

I'll say 10-7. The offense should be good enough to win plenty of games, but the defense should be bad enough to lose them some be a liability in the playoffs.

Injuries have plagued the Bears throughout training camp. They've hit the Panthers far worse and perhaps worse than any team in the league, particularly on defense and at offensive tackle.

They played two tight games last year when the Bears were defensively deficient and the Vikings didn't have a quarterback. Kyler Murray's mobility combined with deadly receivers like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings is enough to take advantage of a Bears defense lacking talent in the front four and now at safety.

Kyler Murray has been DOMINANT in Vikings training camp, and has loved targeting Justin Jefferson.

When targeting Jefferson today, Murray was 5/7 with 2 Touchdowns

He was 16/20 with 5 Touchdowns on the day 🎯

This new duo will be ELITE to watch 🤩

Ben Johnson will find ways to get the end zone against Vic Fangio's defense but it won't be through a powerful running game and the Bears won't be able to control the ball the way they did last year in Philadelphia.

Johnson's offense takes out its frustration from losing the previous week on his old buddy Aaron Glenn. The Jets should be prime candidates for No. 1 draft pick this year and Glenn might become a Bears defensive coordinator candidate after this season.

The Jets are already doing their homework on hiring Mike Tomlin next season. According to excellent NFL insider Jason La Canfora.

I would LOVE to see Tomlin in NY. Dealing with that media. Dealing with insane Jets fans. Dealing with an incompetent owner. He would lose. A lot.

You're probably starting to get the idea by these scores, but Caleb Williams and the offense will be a real problem for opponents to contain and Johnson's idea is to score as many points as possible to offset a terrible defense that is relying on two rookies in the secondary at key positions. They won't be able to outscore their defense's issues against the Packers in the road, even without Micah Parsons.

Atlanta has amassed quite a bit of offensive talent under their new "personnel boss," Matt Ryan, cough, cough. They don't have what they really need and what the Bears do have in Williams. Even the win won't be enough to make the Bears forget how the NFL flat-out cheated them out of two third-round picks thanks to Ryan.

Don’t let the Gervon Dexter trade distract you from the fact that Ian Cunningham is serving as the Falcons de facto GM and they still owe the Bears a compensatory draft pick https://t.co/qWTiNi2ONW

New England's run to the Super Bowl was triggered by one of the easiest schedules in NFL history, followed by playing two flawed opponents at home and finally a formidable opponent in the AFC championship with an inexperienced QB due to injury. Everything fell the Patriots' way. It won't fall their way this year, particularly in Chicago on a Thursday night after Drake Maye and Co. fattened up by two very weak opponents in their previous two games.

They'll make this another entertaining and wildly high-scoring game largely because Johnson has extra time to prepare with a mini-bye after playing New England on a Thursday night.

“If the Seahawks beat the Patriots in the opener, you’re telling me we’re not on 21-0 watch… They won 7-straight to end the regular season & 3-straight in the playoffs so they're just under 50% of the way there.”@DannyParkins thinks Seattle has a shot at breaking Pats' record:

It's never going to be easy facing a Todd Bowes defense and an offense with Baker Mayfield, but the Buccaneers were 27th in pass defense last year and that's an invitation for big plays from Luther Burden, Colston Loveland, Rome Odunze, D'Andre Swift, and Zavion Thomas.

The Saints got off easy last year by losing 26-14 at Soldier Field. They won't be as fortunate with the Bears coming off a bye and looking to get some traction after a 5-4 start and Dennis Allen still having mastery over the Saints. Some have predicted New Orleans as one of the most improved teams. It won't show up here if that's the case. And it's probably not going to be the case.

Bears record prediction: 13-4

Last year they weren’t supposed to be a playoff team, but they were.

This year they’re not supposed to win 13 games, but they will.

No secondary, no pass rush, and no way to stop Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown on Thanksgiving Day at Ford Field. They'll be playing from 10-14 points behind all day and close the deficit at the end.

Jacksonville is better equipped to handle the December cold at Soldier Field than most warmer weather teams, but its defense won't be able contain Williams' passing. In the end, Liam Coen will find the hype was real. Jacksonville's kicker with a howitzer leg will find kicking dead balls in bitter cold and wind much less fun than the warm weather and domes of the NFC South.

From the source Jaguars HC Liam Coen taking a subtle shot at #Bears Caleb Williams and the media love he’s been getting

Meanwhile the Jags have had 🦗🦗🦗

Facing one of the league's worst teams, the Bears will do the usual and overlook a team in the heat at Miami but will have enough time to snap out of their lethargy thanks to an old formula from last year — takeaways.

Williams and the offense are easily capable of going in and putting up big numbers on a Buffalo defense in transition this year after firing defensive-side head coach Sean McDermott. However, this Bears defense never will live up to all of their preseason belief in a patchwork defensive line and an inexperienced secondary. Josh Allen will tear them apart.

Agree Josh Allen is the best QB in football?@DannyParkins: “Of course… The only answer is Josh Allen... The team accomplishments are a team accomplishment. He hasn’t won a Super Bowl.”@getnickwright: “Has he been to one? Has he been a First Team All-Pro?”

The Christmas Day game will flip the script on the earlier game even with Parsons back. Santa might come on Christmas Day but the Iceman cometh as well.

Johnson likes to think he has the formula for beating Matt LaFleur, but Dan Campbell has the formula for beating Johnson. And this one is going to be terribly damaging to Bears playoff chances.

Both Vikings games will be decided by the same formula: While the hapless Bears defense has absolutely no way to stop Minnesota's explosiveness on offense, Brian Flores' defense can come up with enough big plays to limit Williams, Swift, and Co. Kyler Murray isn't the greatest QB, but he'll look it on artificial turf, at home and facing a porous Bears secondary.

At 9-8, the Bears will not make the postseason.

From the source .@MattSpiegs has a feeling the Bears are going to be playing in a lot of 35-31 and 30-27 games.

"Is our guy good enough, is our combo of coach and quarterback good enough?" Spiegel asks. "I sit here and I say yes."