College Football ATS Picks for Every Top 25 Game in Week 7 (Bet Notre Dame to Cover Against BYU)

It's time for Week 7 of the college football season!

22 of 25 nationally ranked teams are in action today and we have a few marquee matchups including Missouri vs. Ole Miss and Oregon vs. BYU.

In this article, I'm going to give you my spread pick for every single game involving a top 25 team. Let's dive into them.

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

I don't think SMU is a good enough team to be deserving of being this big of favorites.

The Mustangs have a great passing offense, but that feeds into Virginia's defensive strength. They rank second in the country in opponent pass success rate. The way to beat the Cavaliers is to run the football, but the Mustangs are 123rd in EPA per rush and 107th in rush success rate, leaving them without an effective run game and thus unable to attack the Cavaliers where they're weakest.

Offensively, Virginia is as average as they come, ranking around the middle of the pack in college football in both metrics. They'll be able to put up some points on the board against a SMU defense that's 90th in opponent-adjusted EPA per play.

Give me the points with Virginia.

Pick: Virginis +8.5 (-110)

Pick: Florida +10.5 (-104)

Pick: Ohio State -3.5 (-110)

Pick: Northwestern -7.5 (-110)

Pick: Mississippi State +14.5 (-110)

Georgia is the far better team and should win this game relatively comfortably, but I'm not ready to lay this many points on them against a competent Auburn team.

Georgia may be a national championship contender, but the Bulldogs aren't without some problems, especially on defense, where they rank 52nd in opponent-adjusted EPA per play and 20th in opponent success rate. That alone leaves the door open for the Tigers to remain relatively competitive in this game.

I'll take the points with the Tigers in what is a significant sell-high spot on Georgia.

Pick: Auburn +20.5 (-105)

Pick: Alabama -8.5 (-112)

Pick: Missouri +6.5 (-122)

Pick: Arizona State +14.5 (-110)

Pick: Kentucky +6.5 (+100)

I'm going to keep riding the momentum of the UCLA Bruins and bet on them to win and cover in this game.

Styles make fights, and the Bruins have a stylistic advantage in this game. The Badgers' biggest strength is their secondary, leading the entire nation in opponent EPA per pass. Unfortunately, the Bruins' bread and butter is their run game, where they rank fourth in EPA per rush and 15th in rush success rate. That means they're well suited to attack the weakness of the Badgers' defense, which is their ability to stop the run.

Defensively, UCLA is as good as any team in the country, ranking inside the top 10 in both adjusted opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate.

According to some advanced metrics, Notre Dame is the best college football team in the country. The Fighting Irish lead the country in net adjusted EPA per play, well above the Cougars, who come in at 16th in that metric.

My concern for BYU would be its defense. The Cougars are just 29th in opponent success rate, and they have struggled significantly when it comes to stopping the run. That's bad news coming against a Notre Dame defense that's ninth in rush success rate and 15th in EPA per rush.

BYU's undefeated record both straight up and against the spread comes to an end on Saturday night.

Pick: Notre Dame -10.5 (-110)

Pick: Houston -4.5 (-110)

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