College Football ATS Picks for Every Top 25 Game in Week 8 (Bet Utah to Win and Cover vs. Texas Tech)

Week 7 of the college football season saw plenty of upsets, and a handful of top-ranked teams lost. That makes Week 8 even more interesting, as the race for the College Football Playoff is wide open as we enter the halfway point of the season.

As I do each week, I'm going to give you my pick against the spread for every game this week that includes a team that's currently ranked inside the top 25 in the latest AP Poll.

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Pick: Pittsburgh +20 (-108)

Texas Tech is the rightful favorite in this game, but I don't think the Red Raiders should be favored by this many points. They have some significant flaws, including their offense, which ranks just 53rd in the country in EPA per pass and 88th in EPA per rush. In fact, the Cincinnati offense outranks the Texas Tech offense in both of those metrics.

The big question mark will be whether or not the Bearcats will be able to score enough against the strong Red Raiders defense in order to cover the spread. Texas Tech can be thrown on, ranking 67th in opponent pass success rate, so if JC French IV brings his best stuff, this game is going to be a lot closer than some people think.

I'll take the points with the Bearcats.

Pick: Cincinnati +10.5 (-115)

SMU is rightfully favored and will win this game, but I think the spread in this game is too lopsided. California's biggest strength is its secondary. The Golden Bears rank 31st in opponent EPA per pass and 51st in opponent pass success rate. That matches SMU's biggest strength, which is their passing offense.

The best way to beat California is to run the ball, but the Mustangs haven't been effective doing that this season, ranking 110th in EPA per rush and 54th in rush success rate.

The Golden Bears are outmatched, but their strengths and style of play will make this game close enough that they'll cover the spread.

Pick: California +20 (-110)

Pick: Northwestern -16 (-110)

Pick: Tennessee +2.5 (-110)

Pick: Alabama -13.5 (-110)

Pick: Minnesota +6.5 (-108)

Pick: Boise State -13 (-108)

I see no reason why Kentucky's hot streak doesn't continue in this spot.

Maybe the most important aspect of this game is going to be the Kentucky rush attack. They have multiple running backs who have been extremely effective this season, and as a whole, they rank 28th in the country in EPA per rush. That's going to set them up well to attack Vanderbilt's biggest weakness, their run defense, which ranks 110th in college football in opponent EPA per rush.

Let's lay the points on the Wildcats at home.

Pick: Kentucky -10.5 (-110)

I'm going to take the points with Wisconsin in this game. As I wrote above, the battle of this game is going to be Maiava against the Wisconsin secondary. The Badgers rank 10th in opponent EPA per pass and 19th in opponent pass success rate. Their defense as a whole is one of the best in the country, and their ability to run the ball offensively makes them a tough matchup for any team to face.

USC's defense has been horrible, specifically when it comes to stopping the run. The Trojans rank 118th in opponent rush EPA and 95th in opponent rush success rate.

Styles make fights, and the Badgers' ability to run the ball offensively and stop the pass defensively is going to give them an advantage in this game.

Pick: Wisconsin +3 (-110)

The unit that sticks out to me in this game is the Houston defense, which has struggled at times this season. The Cougars rank 81st in defensive success rate and 111th in opponent EPA per play. They're going to struggle against a Utah offense that has been fantastic this season, including ranking 14th in adjusted EPA per play.

Utah is one of the most well-balanced teams in the Big 12. They don't do anything at an elite level, but they do everything extremely well, a rarity at the college level. They won't be able to beat the best teams in college football, but they're well-suited to beat teams like Houston, which has a weakness the Utes can exploit.

I'll back Utah as a home favorite in this marquee showdown.

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