College Football Week 9 Best Bets (Bet the UNDER in Ohio State vs. USC)

We had a profitable performance in my Week 8 best bets article, cashing in on UCF to cover against BYU and Texas to cover against Ole Miss.

We move on to Week 9, so it's time to lock in my favorite plays for Saturday's slate of games.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

I can't trust the Michigan offense to score enough to cover this spread. Even with Tommy Carr at quarterback, I haven't seen enough to believe in the Wolverines in any capacity. Michigan's biggest issue is its inability to run the ball, ranking 104th in EPA per rush.

Rutgers' offense has been better than people think this season, ranking 53rd in adjusted EPA per play and 56th in offensive success rate.

I'll take the points with the Scarlet Knights.

Pick: Rutgers +14.5 (-108)

BYU is the rightful favorite in this game, but I don't think the Cougars should be set as this big of a favorite. Arizona State certainly isn't a playoff contender, but their defense has been solid this season, including ranking 37th in opponent EPA per play and 35th in defensive success rate. That should be good enough to slow down a BYU offense that isn't quite as good as you might think.

BYU is 29th in EPA per play, 33rd in EPA per pass, and 30th in EPA per rush. There's no denying those numbers are good, but they aren't at the elite level you'd expect from a top-10 team in the country.

I'll take the points with the Sun Devils and hope their defense can keep the score within reach.

Pick: Arizona State +16.5 (-112)

With the unknown variable at quarterback for Ohio State, I'm going to bet on the total in this game and take the UNDER. Ohio State's offense wasn't perfect even with a healthy Julian Sayin, ranking outside the top 50 in rushing metrics. They don't have a strong running game to lean on to help ease Fahey into the starting role.

Meanwhile, the Ohio State defense remains elite, ranking fifth in the country in both opponent-adjusted EPA per play and opponent success rate. The USC offense has a similar problem to Ohio State's, struggling to run the ball at an effective level.

With the total in the 50s, I'll bet the UNDER.

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