Early ATS Picks for Week 4 College Football – Best Bets Against the Spread

The Week 4 college football slate is loaded. Texas heads to Tennessee, Texas A&M visits LSU and Oregon travels to USC on Saturday. Those three games headline my early Week 4 college football picks against the spread, with point spreads ranging from a field goal to more than a touchdown in the college football odds.

The challenge this early in the season is deciding how much to trust the latest result. Oregon just routed an FCS opponent, while Texas A&M and LSU are coming off SEC losses. Those scores matter, but they do not settle whether the next spread is worth taking.

My focus is on what each team needs to do to cover and where the number gives us room to work. Below are my early ATS picks for Week 4 college football, and my best bets against the spread.

Consensus lines checked September 21. Claim the bet365 bonus code before betting on college football this weekend.

The half-points matter on the SEC selections. Texas can cover -5.5 with a six-point win, while Texas A&M +8.5 survives an eight-point defeat. Oregon -3 returns the stake on a three-point win.

I am laying the points with National Championship odds top contender Texas. The Longhorns have allowed 36 points through three games, including a 24-23 victory over Ohio State and a 30-6 win against UTSA. That defensive start gives me more confidence than a pick built entirely around an offensive shootout.

The matchup I am watching is Tennessee’s ground game against Texas’s run defense. The Volunteers have rushed for 896 yards on 133 carries, or 6.7 per attempt. Texas has allowed 109 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry. Slowing that running game would put more responsibility on Tennessee’s passing attack.

Texas has converted 27 of 48 third downs, giving me another reason to trust it to sustain drives. Tennessee’s rushing average includes an FCS opponent in Furman, although the Volunteers also beat Georgia Tech on the road. I prefer Texas below a touchdown, but containing the run is essential to this pick.

Following the Longhorns from Texas? Compare Texas prediction markets before choosing a platform, and check whether the contract covers an outright win or the spread. A Texas win contract is a different selection from my -5.5 pick.

I want the points with Texas A&M, even after its 31-21 home loss to Kentucky. LSU also enters this matchup off a defeat, falling 32-24 at Ole Miss. Neither team earned a clean endorsement last week, which is part of why I prefer the underdog at this spread.

A&M has allowed opponents to convert just seven of 31 third downs, or 22.6%, through three games. LSU has converted 28 of 50, a 56% rate. That is the key matchup for my underdog pick: a few stalled LSU drives could keep this within one score without requiring A&M to win outright.

LSU’s defense is the strongest argument against me. It has allowed only 99 net rushing yards on 82 attempts, while A&M’s offense averages 5.17 yards per play. Those are small samples against different schedules, but they make a comfortable Aggies scoring day difficult to assume. I want the full +8.5 cushion. Grab the Caesars Sportsbook promo code to tail this pick.

I will take Oregon laying a field goal. Heisman Trophy odds contender Dante Moore completed 19 of 23 passes for 280 yards and four touchdowns in the 84-0 win over Portland State. The Ducks also rushed for 273 yards, giving them a productive response to their loss at Oklahoma State.

I am discounting the margin against an FCS opponent. The more useful takeaway was Moore’s accuracy and the ability to involve several receivers. Jeremiah McClellan missed that game after a pregame injury, so his status deserves attention before the Ducks face a much tougher defense.

USC’s third-down offense is the biggest threat: the Trojans have converted 30 of 46 attempts through four games. Oregon has allowed nine of 41, but Portland State went 0-for-9. I expect a much harder test here. My preference remains Oregon at three, where a field-goal win pushes; I would not automatically take -3.5. Claim the BetMGM promo code to lock in this line.