How alarmed should Blue Jays be about Dylan Cease's velocity dip and rough outing?

Should the Toronto Blue Jays be concerned after ace starting pitcher saw his velocity drop in loss to Athletics amid AL wild-card race?

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Two fair questions regarding the Blue Jays undisputed ace and American League Cy Young Award candidate, Dylan Cease.

First and fairest: Where would the Jays be without the brilliant right hander’s terrific season, the one consistent, healthy arm in a rotation battered and bruised from the outset?

Second and worrisome: Can they make it across the wild-card finish line in the remaining 17 games if Cease is running out of gas?

The latter question came into sharp and painful focus late Monday night in West Sacramento, when Cease had one of his poorer outings at a time when his battling team could ill afford it.

The state of the Toronto rotation is such that it can barely withstand a stumble from Cease, who has been money throughout Year 1 of the seven-year, $210-million US deal he signed in December.

It’s just one loss — and a lost opportunity to regain the third wild-card spot in the AL — but the way it happened creates at least some cause for concern.

Cease, who lasted just five innings, allowed five runs (four earned) but was clearly off the form that has defined his season. His fastball was averaging 94.9 mph, a sharp drop from the season average of 97.1 and the most alarming of an emerging trend.

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How significant was the dip? It was Cease’s lowest fastball velocity in three seasons.

Of further concern was Cease’s transparent explanation for his struggles afterwards, one that at least hinted at fatigue.

“It’s just late in the season (and) I’ve got to roll with what I’ve got and figure how I can maximize that better,” Cease told reporters following the game.

While it could be a blip, there’s also the possibility that the workhorse workload Cease has given his new team — 27 starts and 161.1 innings of work — has taken its toll. It’s also conceivable that the excuse manager John Schneider offered afterwards — that Cease didn’t like the mound at Sutter Health Park, the minor league venue the Athletics call home — was a factor.

Whatever it was, the scrutiny will amplify for Cease’s next outing, likely this weekend at home against another team in the chase, the Orioles.

Of further concern was the fact that the A’s ran on Cease as if he wasn’t even on the mound.

Bad enough that they had five stolen bases in the first three innings on their way to building up a 5-1 lead early, but now the three remaining Jays opponents he’s likely to face have a template to attack them.

The ability to hold runners has been a flaw for the Jays at various points this season and Cease may have been the biggest culprit. But when there’s a paucity of opponents on base — as is the case with most of Cease’s starts — it rarely poses a problem.

“I wish I had a little more focus on that,” Cease told reporters in California, after his 94-pitch effort. “But not letting them on base would have been nice. They definitely took advantage.”

By taking advantage of that flaw, the A’s reaped the dual benefit of chasing Cease after five innings and snapping his terrific 19-game streak of striking out at least seven opponents.

The shortish outing also forced Schneider to use five relievers, which could cause headaches in the two remaining games in the series. With the impressive Jays rally, that also meant an all-in move for leverage, with Tyler Rogers and Louis Varland pitching the eighth and ninth, respectively.

Though it feels like it, especially after a Cease clunker and what would have been a dramatic and uplifting comeback on Monday, we are nowhere near that stage yet.

Yes, the loss stung, but with the Orioles beating the Guardians earlier on Monday, the Jays remained a game behind Cleveland for the third and final wild-card spot.

Each day you knock a game off the schedule, however, and the margin for error becomes more acute. With that, suddenly the two remaining games against the A’s feel extra large, especially with fatigue settling in and a bullpen day likely for Wednesday.

Worth noting from Tuesday: The Jays weren’t exactly helped by the shoddy work of home plate ump Chad Fairchild, especially late in the game. They own part of the blame for that as well, though, thanks to exhausting challenges far too early in the game.

Then came the excruciating finish, a thrilling rally and the prospect of a massive comeback win that would have been a huge motivator, only to have it thwarted by a rare clunker from Varland, whose shaky ninth (two hits, two walks, one earned run) tagged him with the loss.

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