Jaguars vs. Ravens Best NFL Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football in Week 9 (Fade Derrick Henry)

Injuries have robbed us of a great Thursday Night Football matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Baltimore Ravens, as Lamar Jackson (thumb) is on injured reserve and Tyler Huntley (turf toe) has been ruled out.

That leaves Baltimore with third-string quarterback Joe Fagnano (ankle), Kedon Slovis or Austin Reed to start in Week 9 against a Jacksonville team that is 5-2 and coming off a 42-7 win over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 8.

The Jaguars are in first place in the AFC South and in a great spot to make the playoffs with no other team in the division having more than two wins. After the lookahead line for this game had the Jaguars as three-point underdogs (Jackson was expected to play), Trevor Lawrence and Co. are now 9.5-point road favorites in what should be an easy win.

So, how should we bet on this Thursday night battle?

I’m looking to the prop market for some of my favorite plays, especially when it comes to the Jags. Baltimore’s offense is going to be really tough to trust, especially since the Jaguars defense has been one of the best in the NFL, ranking third in EPA/Play and eighth in success rate.

So, I’m fading Derrick Henry and backing a couple of Jags to kick off Week 9 of the 2026 season. Here’s a breakdown of each prop – and the latest odds – for this primetime battle.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

A former No. 1 overall pick, Lawrence is in the MVP conversation this season, but he hasn’t been asked to throw the ball a ton with this Jaguars offense humming on the ground in 2026.

Lawrence is averaging under 29 pass attempts per game in 2026, and he threw the ball just 14 times in a 42-7 win over Indianapolis in Week 8. Overall, the star quarterback has just two games (Weeks 5 and 6) where he even attempted 30 passes.

So, with the Jaguars heavily favored on a short week, I expect a lighter workload for Lawrence against a Ravens team that has lost three straight and is staring down a lost season with Jackson sidelined.

If this game turns into a blowout like the Colts matchup did, Lawrence may not even attempt 25 passes for the fourth time in eight games.

This season, Derrick Henry has just four games with over 70 rushing yards, and he’s coming off three straight down performances with 58, 45 and 53 rushing yards, allowing just 3.5 yards per carry during that stretch.

The Jaguars are going to stack the box against Henry with all of Baltimore’s quarterback issues, and Jacksonville held Jonathan Taylor to under 30 rushing yards in a blowout in Week 8. The game script isn’t going to be favorable for Henry, and he only saw 11 rushes in Week 8.

Jacksonville ranks No. 1 in the NFL in EPA/Rush, allowing the fewest yards per carry (3.4) and total rushing yards (542) in the league this season. Even if Henry does get a ton of looks – which I doubt on a short week – he may struggle to reach this number.

Jags No. 1 receiver Parker Washington had just two targets in Week 9 with Trevor Lawrence attempting 14 passes, but I think he’s worth a look to have a bounce-back showing on Thursday.

Washington has 64 or more receiving yards in four of his seven games, and the Ravens have allowed the sixth-most passing yards in the league this season, ranking 19th in EPA/Pass.

While the targets for Washington have been up and down, he still has 48 looks and 27 catches in seven games, receiving at least five targets in five of his seven matchups.

If the Jaguars do decide to throw the ball early, Washington should be the biggest beneficiary on Thursday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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