NASCAR betting: Change in Cup Chase rules means change in betting

The Cup Series Chase begins this week at Darlington Raceway with the Cook Out Southern 500. The track is lovingly referred to as the “Lady in Black,” a 1.366-mile oval that has hosted NASCAR races since 1950 and remains one of the relatively few twice-a-year stops on the Cup Series calendar.

The first Darlington race this season was back on March 22, when Tyler Reddick picked up his fourth win in a span of six races. He has only won once since, but his recent history at this track certainly makes him one of the drivers to watch as the Chase gets underway.

There are 10 races in this year’s Cup Series Chase, and the format is completely different. There are no rounds and no automatic qualifiers for winning a race, so all 16 drivers remain alive for the duration of the Chase.

Of course, “alive” is a relative term. Some drivers are going to fall pretty far off the pace as these races play out, but hopefully the new format leaves us with some drama among the top contenders as we get deeper into the fall.

Here is the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Chase schedule:

Cook Out Southern 500 (Darlington) - September 6

Enjoy Illinois 300 (World Wide Technology Raceway) - September 13

Bass Pro Shops Night Race (Bristol) - September 19

Hollywood Casino 400 (Kansas) - September 27

South Point 400 (Las Vegas) - October 4

Bank of America 400 (Charlotte) - October 11

Freeway Insurance 500 (Phoenix) - October 18

Yellawood 500 (Talladega) - October 25

Xfinity 500 (Martinsville) - November 1

Straight Talk Wireless 400 (Homestead-Miami) - November 8

Certainly all of us here in the Valley are looking forward to that October 4 race just up the road on I-15.

Along with the changes that eliminated stages and automatic qualification into the next round, the scoring system has been overhauled as well. Previously, drivers accumulated playoff points through wins and bonuses, including Stage points earned during the regular season. Instead, the Chase standings were reset under a new format, with the 16 qualifiers starting between 2,100 and 2,000 points.

The regular-season race winners were Reddick (5), Hamlin (4), Blaney (3), Chase Elliott (2), Shane van Gisbergen (2), Corey Heim (2), Gibbs (2), Logano (2), Daniel Suarez, Carson Hocevar, Chase Briscoe, and Ryan Preece.

Preece’s victory came at the perfect time, as his win last week in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona stole van Gisbergen’s playoff spot and secured his own place in the Chase.

Now the focus shifts to Darlington, where recent history points to a handful of familiar names.

Over the last 10 races here, Hamlin and Briscoe are the only multiple winners with two victories apiece. The other winners over that span are Erik Jones, Brad Keselowski, Larson, Reddick, Byron, and Logano.

In terms of average finish, Hamlin (9.1) and Reddick (9.6) are easily the best in the field over those 10 races. Reddick has six top five finishes and seven top 10s during that span, while Hamlin has four top fives and six top 10s.

Buescher has also finished inside the top 10 seven times, though only one of those finishes came inside the top five. Byron is another driver with a strong history here, having led 328 laps while recording six top five finishes.

Not surprisingly, Hamlin is the favorite this week, priced around or just below 5-1 across most of the market. Reddick’s success at Darlington has him listed as the second choice, slightly above that 5-1 mark.

This is also one of the shortest prices you’ll see on Briscoe, who is around 6-1 depending on the sportsbook. Usual suspects Larson and Blaney are the other drivers sitting at single-digit odds.

We’ll also have to keep an eye on the championship market throughout the Chase, where Hamlin enters as the clear-cut favorite thanks to his points advantage and a schedule that includes several favorable tracks for the grizzled veteran.

Hamlin is priced in the +150 to +200 range, which is substantially shorter than Blaney at around 6-1. Briscoe, Gibbs, Reddick, and Bell make up the next group of contenders at roughly 9-1.

For the latest odds and VSiN’s NASCAR Best Bets, head to the VSiN.com NASCAR Hub to see Steve Makinen’s simulation results and more stats on the drivers.