NRL 2026: Nathan Cleary foot injury mystery deepens, why Newcastle Knights can stun Penrith Panthers, preliminary finals preview, analysis

Throw out the form guide. If Newcastle can dictate the terms of the fight in this week’s sudden-death final against Penrith, they will secure a spot in the NRL grand final.

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Those are the words of former Newcastle premiership winner Matty Johns, who has cast aside what the bookies are saying in the belief the Knights can go all the way.

“Forget about the bookmakers and the prices heading into this weekend’s game. Mate, the Knights are an even-money chance to win this game. They don’t play like the Panthers, they play completely different,” Johns declared on Fox League’s Matty and Cronk.

“If they can dictate the terms of this fight, they will go through to the grand final.”

Newcastle have become the fairytale story of the 2026 NRL season, transformed from last year’s wooden spooners to proper premiership contenders under a drastic turnaround orchestrated by coach Justin Holbrook.

The 2026 Knights side has this week drawn parallels with the Penrith Panthers of 2003 and the Wests Tigers of 2005; teams who overcame the odds and their early-season ladder position to breakthrough and win a premiership.

Johns said fullback Kalyn Ponga was the key to unlocking Newcastle against Penrith on Sunday – primarily in terms of his leadership, his influence in attack, and his communication in defence.

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"Ponga has come such a long way" | 01:56

“We’ve got to remind ourselves how far Kalyn Ponga has come. Remember he was criticised for the strawberry milkshake comment with Nathan Brown. How far he has come?” Johns posed to Cronk.

“Now he’s at the part where he’s representing the community. He’s on the door step of a grand final and he’s emotional about how much the Newcastle jersey means to him,” Cronk responded.

“That’s Kalyn maturing, that’s Kalyn understanding the game and the community, but that’s also just Justin Holbrook handing over a fair amount of respsonsibility to his captain to say, ‘This is the type of guy that this community and team needs’.”

Johns and Cronk believe Newcastle have gotten as far as they have this season because they are playing their own type of expansive, heads-up football. It showed last weekend when they were able to find another gear against a Warriors outfit that has been playing physical, finals-style footy for most of the year.

For Cronk, Ponga’s link with his outside centres – Bradman Best and Dane Gagai – will be the secret to exposing holes in Penrith’s defence.

“If Newcastle beat Penrith, Kalyn needs to be in his sweet spot and I think the arsenal or the reason why the Knights are a chance, is because of Best and Gagai,” Cronk explained.

“I think if they win, I think Best and Gagai put Marzhew and Young on the outside. Because if there is one vulnerability against the best defensive team we’ve ever seen, look at when they’ve lost – it was against the Broncos with Ezra Mam on the edges, Reece Walsh in the final – footwork and everything.

“I think Ponga and the two Knights centres can attack the edges quicker, faster and more skilful, and that’s where they get the victory.”

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Ponga’s link with Best in particular poses a big danger for Penrith, with star centre Paul Alamoti racing the clock to return from a hamstring injury.

Alamoti will be a key inclusion for the Panthers, according to Cronk. He believes the centre is Penrith’s best shot of shutting down Bradman Best.

As if Penrith needed a chip on their shoulder, Johns believes the premiership favourites have some hurdles to overcome before their Newcastle match-up. His concern centred on the fitness of star half Nathan Cleary, who is coming back from a foot injury.

“Penrith are a great club and they don’t leak, but do you get the sense that this is a bit more serious than we think?” Johns asked.

“I do,” responded Cronk. “If you don’t kick the ball and then you verbalise that something is wrong with your foot. Then you get a press release that is very grey and vanilla on an injury that you manage… I feel like it’s a bit more serious than it is. Will it hamper him? I don’t think so.

“The test will be on his kicking,” Cronk concluded.

Despite the injury fears, Cronk believes the Panthers will get the wood over Newcastle on the big stage.

Johns disagreed, casting his vote on the Knights. “I don’t say that with bias, I truly mean it,” he said.

Johns heaped praise on Newcastle’s Phoenix Crossland, who has found his natural home at hooker in a makeshift Knights spine that is missing superstar signing Dylan Brown through injury. He likened Crossland to premiership-winning teammate Danny Buderus, who similarly went to Newcastle as a playmaker but found his home at rake.

Newcastle’s last-season pedigree comes down to the excellent foresight of their coach, Justin Holbrook, who has reimagined the side’s playing blueprint while also giving the team’s younger forwards an opportunity to shine.

“Not only has re-established the DNA of the club, on the field what he has done is he is playing a unique style of football. They don’t play like anyone else, Newcastle play their own unique style,” Johns reflected.

“It’s so important because they’re not playing diet Melbourne, diet Panthers or Diet Warriors. If they go to New Zealand and play a grinding style of football, they don’t win.”

JURY SPLIT ON ROOSTERS-DOLPHINS BLOCKBUSTER

It is rightly building as one of the contests of the NRL season – the evergreen and experienced Roosters taking on a fearless but ultimately unproven Dolphins outfit.

Former Roosters premiership winner Cronk believes the tricolours are clicking at the perfect time of the season ahead of their sudden-death match-up against the Dolphins on Friday.

Two of the most exciting teams in the comp will face off at Suncorp Stadium for a spot against the winner of the Knights and Panthers on Sunday – and Cronk is expecting big things from the Roosters.

While Cronk was impressed in the Roosters’ week one finals loss to the Panthers, he saw something familiar in the goal line defence of the Roosters in last weekend’s thumping of the Sharks – a premiership-winning Trent Robinson goal line defence.

“Being at ground level for their match against Penrith (two weeks ago), I feel like the Roosters were probably the better team,” said Cronk.

“They won the mini battle every collision, they were more physical. It was just the battle hardiness of the Panthers kept them in.

“Against the Sharks, it was a death by one-thousand cuts with them running the ball… The Roosters are physically primed, and their goal line defence is in-sync.

“It’s premiership-calibre defence.”

"One thing they do when they win a comp" | 07:36

Meanwhile the Dolphins pose the most dangerous attacking flank in the competition, and if their left side can fire against the Roosters, they will pose a major a threat.

However, Cronk’s standing concern is around the Dolphins early exchanges and whether they can get a jump on the Roosters.

“That’s my only concern. Outside of that their left-hand side caused carnage against the Roosters a few weeks ago. They were electric – Farnworth beat Rob Toia, Cobbo with Mark Nawaqanatawase.

“The recipe is there for the Dolphins… My advice is do not hesitate, do not miss the start, and go after the contest if you’re the Dolphins.”

For Johns, the halves battle of Daly Cherry-Evans v Isaiya Katoa is emblematic of the contest between the two sides – experience versus youth.

“What a game for Katoa. We’ve watched him come through, we know where he’s headed. He’s getting close to being there,” he said.

Cronk ultimately believes the Roosters experience will persevere on the big stage over the Dolphins, especially with Cherry-Evans and potentially with Sam Walker back in the halves.

“Seeing the Roosters at ground level, I feel like I’ve seen this story before. Having played under Trent Robinson, I know what he holds dear at this time of year. When they’re humming it wins championships,” Cronk said.

“But I really do give the Dolphins a chance, especially if they don’t miss the start. Their firepower can beat anyone.”

Johns believes the Dolphins are good enough to go all the way – especially in light of a week off. He said the Dolphins willingness to go through the middle in attack, not just the edges of opposition defence, would test the Roosters.

“I really like the way they play – they’re a high energy side, they’re young and their fearless,” he said.

“I reckon they can get it done… They’ve got a little bit more gas in the tank, and up at Suncorp they can get it done.”