Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, Oct. 22

Two Western Conference contenders square off during Thursday’s two-game NBA slate, as the Denver Nuggets and Nikola Jokic hit the road to make their 2026-27 season debut against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder turned in an extremely impressive showing on Tuesday night, knocking off the San Antonio Spurs as 2.5-point road underdogs behind big games from SGA, Jared McCain and Chet Holmgren.

The Thunder entered the 2026-27 season tied atop the odds to win the Finals, and improved health this season should give this core a chance to reach the NBA Finals for the second time in three seasons.

Meanwhile, Denver is viewed as more of a fringe contender in the Western Conference after losing Peyton Watson in a sign-and-trade with Cleveland this offseason. The Nuggets did bring in DeMar DeRozan, but they need better health for Christian Braun, Cam Johnson and Aaron Gordon, who all missed large chunks of the 2025-26 campaign.

Denver still had the best offensive rating in the league last season, but it lost in the first round of the playoffs against Minnesota, putting some pressure on this team’s window to contend, especially with Nikola Jokic set to hit free agency in the offseason.

Oddsmakers have the Thunder favored by multiple possessions at home in this game, but it’s worth noting that these teams split their four regular-season meetings in the 2025-26 season with Denver keeping both games in OKC within eight points.

Can they do that again on Thursday?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this battle between two Western Conference contenders.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged over 31 points per game in three of his last four completed seasons, and he dropped 32 points in the season opener against the San Antonio Spurs.

The two-time league MVP took 27 shots and seven 3-pointers against San Antonio, shooting 13-for-27 from the field (3-for-7 from 3) while leading the Thunder in scoring. He’s the best scoring guard in the league, and SGA should have a field day against a Denver defense that was one of the 10 worst in the league last season.

The Nuggets lost one of their best defenders in Peyton Watson in the offseason, and SGA had 34, 36 and 35 in his three appearances against Denver during the 2025-26 season. If he’s going to hover around 20-25 shots for OKC, SGA is an easy bet to clear his scoring prop on Thursday night with the total in this game set in the mid 230s.

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m taking OKC to cover at home:

The Thunder were insanely impressive against San Antonio on Tuesday night, shooting the lights out in the first half on their way to a 12-point road win.

After injuries derailed the Thunder’s playoff run in the 2025-26 season, they look as deep as ever with a guard rotation that features Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Jared McCain and Ajay Mitchell.

The Thunder won three of the four games between these teams in the 2025-26 season, and they were clearly the better defense (No. 1) while Denver clocked in at No. 21.

Losing Peyton Watson is going to hurt the Nuggets’ athleticism on the wing, and Denver’s bench is extremely thin after DeMar DeRozan in terms of proven scorers. Last season, injuries torpedoed Denver’s playoff run, and I think it may struggle out of the gate against arguably the deepest team in the NBA.

The first few games of the season usually are a little sloppier on the offensive end, and that doesn’t bode well for a Denver team that needs to outscore teams if it wants to get back tk the 50-win threshold in the 2026-27 season.

At home, the Thunder were just 24-25 against the spread last season, but they posted an average scoring margin of plus-11.7 points in those games. I’ll take them to win and cover on Thursday after a commanding showing on opening night.

Pick: Thunder -7.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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