Oregon vs. USC Predictions, Best Bets and Picks for College Football Week 4

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Oregon is favored against USC in Week 4 of the 2026 college football season. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect We have a marquee matchup in the Big Ten set to take place today when No. 20 Oregon takes on No. 12 USC in a battle between two former Pac-12 squads.

The Trojans are 3-0 on the season, but have beaten up on inferior opponents like Fresno State, Louisiana, and Rutgers. Oregon is 2-1 after a shocking upset loss to Oklahoma State.

The good news is they can erase some of that loss with a win against the No. 12 team in the country on Saturday.for this game, Peter Dewey broke down why he's laying the three points on the Oregon Ducks in this game: USC’s close scare with Rutgers in Week 3 was concerning, and this defense has been far from good in the 2026 season. USC allowed 26 points to San Jose State and 30 points to Louisiana earlier in the season, ranking 104th in the country in defensive success rate.

For all of the struggles that Oregon has dealt with in the first three weeks, the Ducks are ninth in EPA/Play on offense and 12th in EPA/Play on defense. A lot of that has to do with the blowout of Portland State, but I’m not completely out on the Ducks as a potential playoff contender.

Meanwhile, USC ranks outside the top 100 in EPA/Rush on defense and has not faced a quality team yet in the 2026 season. I think this step up in class may be too much for the Trojans, and I think oddsmakers got it right with the Ducks as field-goal favorites. USC has struggled to stop the pass through the first three weeks of the season, despite not yet playing an elite quarterback.

They have given up 7.7 yards per pass attempt, which is 81st in the country. Now, they finally have to face one of the best quarterbacks in the nation, Dante Moore. I expect the Oregon quarterback to dice up this secondary on Saturday night and soar over 280 yards through the air.

Dakorien Moore is the clear No. 2 option through the air for Oregon, hauling in 11 receptions for 192 yards, both of which are the second-best marks on Oregon. He also leads the team in receiving touchdowns with three. As I wrote above, I think Oregon is going to have a field day through the air in this game, which I'm willing to bet will result in at least one Moore touchdown.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Originally from Nova Scotia, Iain MacMillan is a senior editor covering betting, with a focus on NFL, NHL, and golf. He hosts the Bacon Bets Podcast and has been featured on VSIN, BetQL and Monumental Sports Network. He is a member of the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association and his beloved Falcons and Maple Leafs break his heart on a yearly basis.

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