Pittsburgh Pirates relief pitcher Lake Bachar is a solid prop target on Sept. 3.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a little life in the NL playoff race, sitting 5.5 games out of the final wild card spot heading into Thursday’s matinee matchup with the struggling San Francisco Giants.

San Francisco is not in the conversation to make the postseason, as it’s 24 games under .500 after splitting the first two games of this series.

On Thursday, San Francisco will turn to former second-round pick Blade Tidwell (4.54 ERA) for his sixth start of the season and 14th appearance. Tidwell has a 5.26 ERA since joining the rotation in August, allowing six or more runs in two of his last three outings.

Meanwhile the Pirates are going with a bullpen game, as Lake Bachar (3.70 ERA) will get the start. Bachar has been solid this season, ranking in the 74th percentile in expected ERA and the 91st percentile in expected batting average against.

However, he’ll likely only pitch a couple of innings for a Pirates team that has a 4.11 bullpen ERA in the 2026 season.

Let’s take a look at the latest odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this series finale on Thursday afternoon.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

So far this season, Bachar has not pitched more than three innings in any of his outings as an opener, so he shouldn’t be in this game too long. Oddsmakers actually have his outs recorded prop set at 5.5 on Thursday, and I wouldn’t mind the OVER in that market.

However, I’m looking at Bachar's walks prop, as the Giants are dead last in MLB in walk rate this season. Since we know that the Pirates righty is going to have a pretty short leash, why not take him to avoid a free pass in the early innings?

Bachar has not walked a batter in back-to-back outings, and he only has allowed 30 free passes all season.

This is more of a fade of the San Francisco offense than anything, especially if the Pirates right-hander exits this game in two innings or less.

We’ve seen back-to-back one-run wins to open this series, with these teams combining for 25 and nine runs in the first two games.

Now, Pittsburgh is pretty heavily favored at home with Bachar on the mound. Pittsburgh has won five of the six games where Bachar has been the opener, a testament to this bullpen this season. This should be a pretty favorable matchup with a Giants offense that is just 18th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) in 2026.

I’m also fading Tidwell in this matchup, as he’s struggled in two of his last three starts despite having a solid expected ERA of 3.65 this season. He’s seen his ERA rise quite a bit since joining the rotation, and I think he’ll be in a tough spot to outduel a Pirates’ bullpen that has been pretty serviceable (4.11 ERA) in 2026.

Plus, the Giants are 21 games under .500 on the road, winning just 25 games away from Oracle Park this season.

I’ll give the Pirates the edge in this series finale as they aim to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

Pick: Pirates Moneyline (-168 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $150 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.