Raiders vs. Chargers prediction: Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, injury update, betting trends, and stats

An early AFC West showdown carries significant implications as the Las Vegas Raiders (1-0) look to build on an impressive opening-week victory over the Dolphins while the Los Angeles Chargers (0-1) try to avoid an 0-2 start after losing in Week 1 to the Cardinals.

The Raiders opened the season with one of the more impressive Week 1 performances in the league. Led by running back Ashton Jeanty (102yds rushing and 45yds. receiving with 2 TDs), Las Vegas controlled much of the game against Miami. Kirk Cousins was solid under center in his debut with the Raiders completing 21 of 30 passes for 160 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Defensively, Las Vegas limited Miami to 13 points allowing just 74 yards rushing in the process. The Chargers started well but faded quickly against the Cards. Los Angeles marched 77 yards for a touchdown on its opening drive but struggled to sustain offense from that point forward. Justin Herbert finished with 209 passing yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Wide receiver Ladd McConkey caught five passes for 82 yards and a touchdown before leaving with a rib injury. Monitor his status for Sunday’s tilt because he is WR1 and his absence would be felt. The true concern for LA was on defense as the Chargers surrendered 393 yards and 26 points. They just could not get off the field.

The game’s most important matchup is Jeanty against the Chargers’ defensive line. The sophomore back dominated in Week 1, while the Chargers struggled defensively throughout their opener. Another subplot worth your attention is the Raiders’ pass rush vs. Herbert. Vegas got to Willis five times last week. They may not need that many sacks against Herbert, but they will need to bother him consistently all afternoon.

The Raiders are looking to start the season 2-0 for the first time since 2021 while the Chargers are looking to avoid starting 0-2 since 2023.

Let’s dive into the numbers and see if we can’t find an additional sweat or two.

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Money on the visiting Raiders has brought the number down from where it opened at Chargers -8.5. The Total has grown by a point after opening at 42.5.

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, betting trends, and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

The Total sits at 43.5 with a lean toward the Under. Neither offense showed downfield ability in Week 1 — Kirk Cousins was 1 of 7 on passes of 10-plus air yards, and Justin Herbert averaged just 7.7 yards per attempt. Last season, LA’s defense ranked 1st in yards allowed, 2nd in plays allowed, and 3rd in passing yards allowed while Vegas’ defense ranked 4th in yards per carry allowed and 3rd in third-down conversion rate. In addition, the Chargers’ interior offensive line is a disaster with Tyler Biadasz out for the season. Cole Strange allowed five pressures in Week 1, and they’re facing a Raiders’ pass rush that did register five sacks against Malik Willis five times. The Raiders are likely still without Brock Bowers. It all adds up to two struggling offenses facing two quality defenses. It has all the makings of a low-scoring, grind-it-out affair. Thus, the lean to the Under.

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