Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan: Odds, full fight preview and prediction | UFC Halloween

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight standouts Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan will clash TONIGHT (Sat., Oct. 31, 2026) inside Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC Halloween (a.k.a. UFC Vegas 123).

Moicano, 37, is a proud member of the previous generation of Lightweights who refuses to be replaced. Chris Duncan tried to snag Moicano’s ranking earlier this year and wound up thoroughly out-classed, jabbed up and choked out in short fashion. Moicano faces a similar challenge here in 26-year-old Nolan, a talented up-and-comer eager to break into the title mix. Nolan has won five straight bouts, including a notable upset over Fares Ziam last time out that pushed Nolan into the rankings.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Though jiu-jitsu is his standout trait, Renato Moicano is a fighter who can do it all. On the feet, he has a piston of a jab, as well as damaging kicks and sharp timing on his counter right hand. He’s a strong wrestler as well, able to time double leg takedowns and clinch entry quite well.

Moicano wins this fight by remaining composed and making use of his classic weapons. On the feet, that means stabbing Nolan with the jab when the Australian tries to build combinations or run up into kicks. Speaking of, Moicano is not significantly smaller than Nolan; their reaches are only an inch apart. There’s no reason why Moicano shouldn’t be kicking with Nolan, particularly since a landed kick will often be met by in kind.

If Moicano knows the kick is coming, that’s an easy takedown entry — ask Benoit Saint Denis.

In the long run, Moicano probably wins this fight on the canvas. We saw Nolan slow down against Ziam, and he was pushing for and winning the wrestling exchanges in the first two rounds! If Moicano can similarly find his way to top position against a fatiguing opponent, he has the top game to really make Nolan pay.

Nolan is a well-rounded young talent. He’s a striker first and foremost, a rangy and powerful hitter who employs a variety of Muay Thai weapons. Despite his height and reach, Nolan is comfortable in the pocket and doesn’t avoid trading at times. His last bout versus Ziam really showed off his wrestling and physicality, as he largely won that bout by pushing harder in scrambles.

In this bout, Nolan doesn’t want to scramble with the more decorated jiu-jitsu player. He’ll have to burn a lot of energy to keep up, and that’s a questionable strategy in a five-round fight. He’s better off using his range and quickness, advantages that should carry much deeper into the fight.

If Nolan can work to mitigate Moicano’s jab, he’s in for a much easier night at the office. There are countless ways to take away the jab. For example, Nolan could look to simultaneously kick the lead as Moicano reaches with the jab. He could slip inside or outside and return with punches. He could spend more of the fight from southpaw, extend his own lead hand to occupy Moicano’s left, and then try to fold over elbows or blast kicks from that position.

Whatever path Nolan prefers, it’s always a good idea to takeaway your opponent’s best weapon.

Renato Moicano was in rare form last time out, utterly spanking a talented up-and-comer. In his previous loss to Beneil Dariush, Moicano looked much sluggish and was held down for two rounds after a strong start. The question then is which Moicano shows up at UFC Vegas 123?

Nobody can answer that question, but I do wonder if perhaps Dariush deserves more credit in making Moicano look mediocre. The Iranian standout is a genuinely outstanding wrestler and grappler, the rare fighter able to play that game with Moicano and come out on top. If Nolan tries to copy Dariush by grinding Moicano like he did to Ziam, I don’t think it goes so well for him. On the feet, Nolan is more size and athleticism than thoughtful striker. Like Duncan, I can see him running straight into Moicano’s jab and counters then realizing that’s not a winning strategy.

It feels like Moicano is more skilled everywhere, and the question is whether Nolan’s youth/Moicano’s aging is enough of a factor to cover that gap. For now, I’ll say the Lightweight old guard puts another point on the board with a competitive victory.