Rugby League World Cup predictions, betting tips and odds

The 17th edition of the Rugby League World Cup starts in Sydney on Thursday and co-hosts Australia are once again the team everyone has to beat.

The Aussies have ruled the world on 12 occasions and are favourites to lift the trophy for a 13th time this autumn, although their dominance could be put to the test by New Zealand and Pacific powerhouses Samoa and Tonga.

New Zealand to win the Rugby League World Cup3pts 9-4 Coral, Ladbrokes

When it comes to international rugby league, Aussie rules.

Of the 16 World Cups held in the 13-man code, Australia have won 12 of them and New Zealand, in 2008, are the only other nation to have lifted the Paul Barriere Trophy in half a century.

The Kangaroos are favourites to bound their way to another world title over the next four weeks, although the betting is much closer than in previous years.

Australia went off 4-7 in England four years ago and 1-4 when the World Cup was last held down under in 2017, the year they beat England 6-0 in the final.

But the all-conquering Aussies are 4-5 to rule the world for a 13th time this autumn and the format of the ten-team competition means arch rivals New Zealand have the best chance to topple the Kangaroos on November 15.

Both sides are housed in Pool A, in which the top two go through to the semis, and an upset akin to Leicester winning the Premier League would have to take place for the big two not to go through.

From there, it's likely to be a one-off game against either England, Samoa or Tonga to make the final in Brisbane.

The historical betting also charts the rise of Samoa and Tonga as the big two's nearest challengers – at the expense of England.

Thirteen years ago, Samoa and Tonga were both 200-1 to win the World Cup. This time, Samoa, who pipped England to a place in the 2022 final, are 9-1 and Tonga 14s, the same price as England.

More and more NRL stars are choosing the Pacific island nations on heritage grounds and a relaxation of State of Origin eligibility rules has undoubtedly helped the international game as it means players can play in the marquee series and still represent a nation other than Australia.

Only the top two are able to progress from the combined Pool B & C standings, so the fact Tonga play both of their rivals could be decisive, although it may be England who are left disappointed.

Brian McDermott has taken over from Shaun Wane and has used heritage rules to build his squad and include plenty of NRL talent. But England scored only two tries in their 3-0 Ashes defeat last year and they do not look to possess the same quality in key positions that the top four in the market do.

Australia and New Zealand met in a semi-final for the ages at Elland Road in 2022 and few people are betting against them meeting in the finale this time.

The Aussies are a ruthlessly efficient winning machine but New Zealand won't get many better chances of beating them.

The Kiwis stunned a team of Australian greats in the 2008 final and while the current Aussie crop is supremely talented, it is not of that vintage.

New Zealand were comfortable winners of last year's Pacific Championship, beating Samoa twice, Tonga and Papua New Guinea while the Aussies were barely tested by England in the Ashes.

And while Australia will be missing superstar half-back Nathan Cleary through injury and NRL phenomenon Mark Nawaqanitawase following his return to rugby union, the Kiwis are as near to full-strength as possible.

Queensland full-back Kalyn Ponga, who led Newcastle Knights to the NRL Grand Final this season, took advantage of the relaxation of Origin rules to switch his allegiance to the Kiwis, while all but four members of their 23-man squad play for a club who made the playoffs in Australia this year.

New Zealand's pack, including Roosters man mountain Naufahu Whyte, is arguably the best in the competition and playing Australia in the tournament opener should give coach Stacey Jones plenty of pointers to build on before crunch time.

300-1 bar. Win only. Odds correct at time of publishing

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The 2026 Rugby League World Cup is being held in Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea, and begins on Thursday, October 15, in Sydney. Brisbane's Suncorp Stadium will host the final on November 15.

Reigning champions Australia are 4-5 favourites to win a 13th World Cup this autumn.

Every game from the 2026 Rugby League World Cup will be shown live in the United Kingdom on Premier Sports.

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