San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb is an interesting prop target on Monday.

The San Francisco Giants are well out of the playoff race in the National League yet they are favored at home in Monday’s series opener with the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Cards are just .500 this season, but they’re only four games out of a playoff spot with the stretch run of the regular season ahead. St. Louis enters this game on a solid 6-4 stretch, and it’s actually been better on the road (four games over .500) this season.

So, the Cards could be a live dog in one of three night games on Labor Day in MLB.

Michael McGreevy (3.97 ERA) is on the mound for the Cardinals for his 28th start of the season, and he’ll match up with Giants ace Logan Webb, who is coming off a rough showing against Pittsburgh where he allowed nine runs.

Does Webb bounce back at home?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this National League showdown on Sept. 7.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Webb is coming off one of his worst starts in a long time, allowing nine hits, nine runs and two walks in two innings in a loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates. He’s now in just the 22nd percentile in expected batting average against (.260) and has allowed six or more hits in 11 of his 25 outings in2026.

While St. Louis is a middle-of-the-pack offense this season (16th in batting average, 21st in wRC+), it has jumped to sixth in batting average over the last 30 days, hitting .262 as a team.

That’s a bad sign for Webb, who relies a lot on contact, posting a whiff percentage in the 14th percentile this season.

As long as Webb last long enough into the game, this prop is a pretty solid value on Monday night.

The Giants have been a much better team at home (33-36) than on the road (26-49) this season, but I still have a hard time betting on them as favorites, even with Webb on the mound.

The All-Star right-hander was rocked for nine runs in his last start, and the Giants are just 9-16 in Webb’s 25 outings this season. To make matters worse, the right-hander sits in just the 48th percentile in expected ERA and the 22nd percentile in expected batting average against in 2026.

McGreevy hasn’t been any better, sitting in the sixth percentile in expected ERA and the fifth percentile in expected BAA, which is a major reason why his FIP currently stands at 4.31 this season.

The Cardinals right-hander has a 6.86 ERA over his last eight starts, yet the team has somehow won five of those games.

I’m staying completely away from a side and taking the OVER in this series opener, even though the Cardinals have hit the UNDER in 52.9 percent of their games.

Both of these starters are capable of giving up a crooked number early and both teams rank in the back half of the league in bullpen ERA. With this total down at 7.5, I’ll trust these offenses to score enough on Monday night.

Pick: OVER 7.5 (-117 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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