The Boston Bruins Aren't As Good As Their Record Indicates, But It Doesn't Matter

Few people would have projected that the Boston Bruins would be the top team in the Atlantic as October drew to a close. Yet they're sitting on 19 points in 14 games, with the NHL's second-best goal differential at plus-18.

How are they doing it? Well, it shouldn't surprise you that they have one of the league's highest shooting percentages, alongside the Edmonton Oilers and Colorado Avalanche, who, of course, have a much higher overall talent level. Individual players, and therefore the team as a whole, are punching above their weight.

It must be said, though, that they've scored 50 goals on about 44.2 expected, according to Money.Puck.com, so the number isn't completely inordinate, but the fact is that it should also come down; if they outscored their xG number by five goals every 12 games, they would end the season 35 goals above expected, and that just doesn't happen for a team whose second-best forward is arguably Elias Lindholm.

The other thing driving the Bruins' success, though, is more sustainable. A lot more. Beyond having positive underlying numbers, they also have the best team save percentage in the league (.922), driven largely by Jeremy Swayman, a career .910 goalie in a league where .910 means you're gonna win a lot of games. Obviously, right now, he’s well above that number (.920), and backup Michael DiPietro is up around .940, and both could come down.

In the grand scheme of things, all that overperformance doesn't really matter for one very good reason: The Bruins are about as much of a "high floor/low ceiling" team as there is in the league. Between Swayman, a borderline-MVP-caliber forward like David Pastrnak, and two extremely good defensemen in Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm (both currently above 60 percent of the expected goals at 5-on-5), they have enough top talent on the roster that, even if the depth slips a bit — as we should expect it to — they can still win plenty of games.

We've seen in plenty of other organizations that having a goalie roughly as good as Swayman is often enough to keep you on the playoff bubble all on its own. If Swayman does have a stretch of poorer play, carrying a Pastrnak-level offensive player can help cover for him, and adding JJ Peterka in the summer without subtracting from the roster helps on that front as well.

But the other thing about the Bruins is that they've already banked all these points, right? Having 19 from your first 14 games means you don't have to play at a crazy pace the rest of the way; all they need to get to 100 now is to play at a roughly 90-point pace the rest of the way. For a team with this much talent, even if the results thin out a bit, that's very doable.

Plus, they punched above their weight last year, reached 100 points, and didn't do well in the playoffs. In a division with expected giants like Tampa and Florida, an exit in the first two rounds remains the likeliest outcome. But the proof of concept is here, and little indicates this team could drop off a cliff even if Fraser Minten and James Hagens, for instance, hit a wall.

They may not have top players beyond Pastrnak and, arguably, Peterka up front. Still, players like Pavel Zacha, Elias Lindholm, Casey Mittelstadt, and Morgan Geekie are all competent enough to win their minutes most nights, which is all you can really ask of your depth players.

No one will mistake the Bruins for a Cup contender, but with this many points in the bank already, and the talent at every position, it would take a brutal collapse to say they don't look like a playoff team.