The Broncos are live to cover the spread against Oregon in Week 1.

Some would argue that Week 1 is the toughest week of the college football season to bet on. Not only has the transfer portal made it hard to predict just how good each team is, but the week is also loaded with lopsided affairs.

A 40.5-point favorite may dominate the entire game, but they may take their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter, leading to them winning by 38 instead of 41. Covering huge spreads is almost as much about how the coach will treat a blowout as it is about evaluating how much better a team is compared to its opponent.

With that being said, I'm going to try to pick the spread winner in every single game involving a team that's ranked in the top 25 in the nation.

Pick: Missouri -54.5 (-114)

Pick: Oklahoma -41 (-112)

Pick: Stanford +24.5 (-112)

Pick: Fresno State +22.5 (-113)

Any time that a mid-major team puts forward a successful season, I hesitate to bet on them the following year, and that's the case with North Texas. The Mean Green had some of the best advanced metrics in the nation last year, but with the way college football works in the current era, that has led to their head coach, Eric Morris, moving on to a power school and the majority of their roster transferring.

Now, with a new head coach and a completely overturned roster, I struggle to see how they can hang with a national championship contender. The Hoosiers have also lost some players from last season, but Curt Cignetti is a master at building a roster, and I have high hopes for their new quarterback, Josh Hoover.

Pick: East Carolina +28 (-106)

Pick: Houston -20.5 (-113)

Pick: Ohio State -49.5 (-113)

Ball State was one of the worst statistical teams in the country last season, and I don't think they did enough this offseason to make me think they can hang with Ohio State. Their offense ranked 135th in EPA per play and 136th in offensive success rate. They only replaced three starting positions in the transfer portal, so I don't expect them to improve much in 2026.

Pick: Georgia -48.5 (-102)

Pick: Boise State +24.5 (-112)

Boise State's defense is good enough to cover the spread in this game. They ranked 10th in the country in defensive success rate, and they're returning plenty of their production from a season ago. This game is going to be a low-scoring affair, which will go a long way in helping the Broncos cover the spread.

Pick: Texas State +29.5 (-109)

Texas State had an underrated offense last season, ranking 35th in the country in adjusted EPA and 30th in offensive success rate. Let's also remember that Arch Manning got off to a slow start with Texas in 2025. If history repeats itself in 2026, Texas State will be live to cover this spread.

Pick: Penn State -24 (-110)

Pick: Tennessee -46.5 (-113)

Pick: Northern Illinois +31.5 (-112)

Pick: Missouri State +40.5 (-107)

Pick: Texas Tech -42.5 (-115)

Dabo Swinney's refusal to fully dive into the transfer portal has led to this program being left in the dust, especially when you consider that Curt Cignetti used the complete opposite strategy at Indiana and led a program that was one of the worst in the nation to a National Championship.

Until Clemson moves on from Swinney, I can't trust them to hang with any elite team in the country.

Pick: Western Michigan +27.5 (-105)

Pick: Washington State +23.5 (-106)

Pick: Notre Dame -20.5 (-115)

Pick: Louisville +7 (-113)

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