UFC Edmonton Prelims Predictions & Picks – Best Bets Include Boser vs Diniz

The UFC touches down at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Canada, today. The opening bout kicks off at 4:00 PM ET on Paramount+.

This entire Fight Night is a puzzle packed with massive potential value, from heavily backed favorites looking to steamroll the opposition to live underdogs poised to bust chalky parlays. My favorite targets are from the Prelims card, where I’m fading the public noise to find explicit edges in the prop markets.

Let’s dive into my favorite UFC Edmonton prelims picks, predictions and best bets headlined by Boser vs Diniz.

Odds as of October 17 at BetMGM. Albertans can lock in the best number by signing up at BetMGM Alberta with registration code SBD1500 before placing your wagers on this Edmonton card.

The UFC Edmonton prelims odds board shows a clear split between the unplayable chalk and the genuine coin flips. Nick Galanti at -667 and Melissa Croden at -333 are the two steepest prices on the early card, which pushes all of the value in those fights into the method and distance markets.

The tightest lines sit in Cody Chovancek vs Soyoung You at -125/+105 and Javad Mahjoub vs Joel Faglier at +110/-133. Julien LeBlanc vs Nick Galanti is a massive -714 to end inside the distance, while Kaitlyn Cerminara vs Mackenzie Stiller at -303 is the one prelim the board firmly expects to reach the scorecards.

Jhonata Diniz presents a formidable striking threat in this heavyweight matchup making him the clear pick over Tanner Boser. I am strictly avoiding the straight moneyline here because playing the finish offers a safer angle.

Diniz recently dismantled Alvin Hines with a high-volume striking clinic landing 112 significant strikes at a staggering 61.54% accuracy rate. He also boasts serious finishing ability, scoring a KO/TKO victory over Austen Lane while recording one knockdown and another over Eduardo Neves where he secured two knockdowns in the very first round.

Boser has slipped badly lately regarding durability, suffering a round two KO/TKO loss to Gokhan Saricam and a first-round KO/TKO defeat to Ion Cutelaba. Diniz throws heavy leather with terrifying volume, and I am betting the fight ends inside the distance.

In this bantamweight clash I have Melissa Croden positioned to emerge victorious against Chelsea Chandler. Croden has showcased a highly effective and dangerous skill set recently.

Against Tainara Lisboa she recorded a third-round KO/TKO finish while landing 99 significant strikes and registering a clean knockdown. She also flashed strong grappling upside by securing four takedowns in a unanimous decision victory over Darya Zheleznyakova.

Chandler meanwhile suffered a quick first-round KO/TKO loss to Joselyne Edwards. Croden mixes heavy striking volume with timely takedowns beautifully, and she has the exact style to break Chandler down early.

Cody Chovancek carries an unblemished 9-0 professional record into this bantamweight bout against the 16-4 Soyoung You. I love backing undefeated prospects who prove they can control the octagon under pressure.

Chovancek delivered a dominant performance on Dana White’s Contender Series earning a third-round KO/TKO. In that specific bout he commanded the cage with 5:09 of control time, landing 29 significant strikes at a 50% success rate and dropping his opponent twice.

Soyoung You enters this contest coming off a second-round submission loss to Elijah Smith. Chovancek has the power, accuracy and extensive control time necessary to keep his undefeated streak intact, and at -125 this moneyline offers extremely fair value for a fighter with such a high ceiling.

Nick Galanti sports an 8-1 professional record and is fresh off a devastating first-round KO/TKO victory over Carlos Petruzzella. He scored a knockdown and landed a hyper-efficient 80% of his significant strikes in that brief appearance.

Julien LeBlanc is coming off a quick first-round submission loss making Galanti a massive -667 favorite. There is absolutely no mathematical justification for betting a -667 moneyline in mixed martial arts, because the implied probability is entirely inflated.

My favorite long-shot play on the entire card is banking on LeBlanc surviving the early storm. Taking the Yes on the fight going the distance at +400 provides incredible plus-EV value, and if LeBlanc can clinch and dirty box his way out of the first round this prop becomes incredibly live.

Check out the best UFC betting apps to line shop across the industry before the UFC Edmonton prelims get underway.