Ulster’s Moneyball bet: Why a stronger floor may matter more than a higher ceiling this season

What does Richie Murphy’s Ulster have in common with a baseball team from Oakland that changed the way sport thought about recruitment?

Perhaps more than you might expect.

Ulster’s 2026/27 season begins under the Ravenhill lights on Friday night, with Edinburgh providing the first indication of whether a summer of change has moved Murphy’s side forward.

The opening round of the URC kicks off at the Affidea Stadium at 7.45pm.

Opening nights settle little, but this one should at least establish the tone. Ulster finished ninth last season, two points outside the play-offs, after spending much of the campaign considerably higher.

They reached a European final and still arrived in May with rather less to show for the season than had seemed likely.

The connection with Oakland comes through Moneyball. The 2011 film, based on the true story of Athletics general manager Billy Beane, follows a baseball organisation trying to compete with richer rivals without the money to buy the game’s obvious stars.

Oakland instead searched for qualities the market had undervalued, trying to create greater collective value rather than chase celebrity.

Without stretching the analogy, Ulster’s approach this summer looks clear: strengthen the floor rather than lift the ceiling.

Ulster ultimately lost 12 senior players over the summer, with Bell and Werner Kok among the genuine first-team quality heading out. They have responded by recruiting broadly rather than spectacularly.

On paper, the best Ulster XV does not look dramatically different. That is both the concern and the point.

Ulster’s strongest side last season was generally good enough to compete. The problem came when it stopped being their strongest side.

It is tempting to describe the slide simply as an injury problem. There were certainly enough of them, while seven players were selected in Ireland’s initial Six Nations squad and another group went into Ireland XV.

But every URC team encounters injuries, international windows and player management. Those absences explain why Ulster had to test their depth. They do not fully explain why the test proved so damaging.

The effect was most obvious late in matches. Sixty per cent of Ulster’s regular-season points came in the first half, while opponents outscored them 248-195 after the interval.

They led Leinster 17-7 at half-time and lost 24-20; led the Lions 19-17 at Ellis Park and lost 49-31; turned a 21-17 interval advantage over the Stormers into a 38-38 draw; and after leading in the final round against Glasgow, Kyle Rowe’s late try condemned them to a 26-22 defeat.

Fatigue, disrupted combinations, decision-making and an uneven bench all played their part. The broader point is harder to escape: when Ulster lost preferred starters, they too often lost important functions with them.

The signings of 30-year-olds Eli Snyman and Eduardo Bello say plenty about the strategy. These are experienced heads brought in partly to stop youngsters such as Joe Hopes, Charlie Irvine and Tom McAllister being asked to provide every answer immediately.

Matthew Devine increases competition at scrum-half, while Jamie Benson provides another option at 10. Both are talented additions, but the question remains whether they are the right profiles for what Ulster need.

Nathan Doak’s box-kicking was central to Ulster’s exits last season, with the province clearing their own 22 successfully on roughly nine occasions in ten. If he is injured or away with Ireland, Ulster are not simply replacing a scrum-half, but one of their main methods of controlling field position.

Devine offers something different: pace around the base, an eye for space and the ability to lift the tempo. That can be invaluable, but it does not necessarily replicate Doak’s territorial control.

The same applies at out-half. Ulster leaned heavily on 22-year-old Jack Murphy last season and Benson, 23, now gives him genuine competition. He brings versatility and upside, but not yet years of experience managing games through territory, tempo and risk.

That is not a criticism of Benson. He may prove an excellent signing. But one of Ulster’s problems last season was their inability to make matches smaller and more controlled when required. Another talented young out-half does not automatically solve that.

One statistic from last season goes a long way towards explaining both Ulster’s strengths and their limitations. In the Opta European club comparison supplied for this piece, no side had a higher proportion of possessions extending beyond five phases.

That is a compliment to their accuracy, patience and ability to retain possession. It is also a warning.

The best attacks do not always need six, seven or eight phases to do damage. A dominant carry or clean line-break can fracture a defence before it has time to reset. Long sequences, by contrast, demand repeated work from the same forwards and increase the cost of the eventual mistake.

Ulster therefore need a broader attacking menu rather than simply more of the same.

A stronger maul, a more productive set-piece and better territorial kicking can all create cheaper gains. So can more destructive carriers and line-breakers. The return of James McNabney could make a difference in that regard, giving Ulster another forward capable of denting the defensive line and producing quicker ball before an attack becomes a prolonged exercise in recycling possession.

It would be too simplistic to blame last season’s second-half fade on a high-phase style. The relationship is nevertheless worth considering. Instead of banging their head against a brick wall with carries, Ulster must find ways to make meaningful ground earlier in the phase count.

The set-piece is another part of that equation. New forwards coach Clarke Dermody arrives with a strong scrum pedigree, while Snyman, Bello, Knox and Donnell give him more material to work with. The priority will be to create a dependable set-piece, revive a struggling maul and maintain a strong forward platform after 60 minutes.

The league leaves little room for grand predictions. Glasgow, Leinster, the Stormers and Bulls occupied last season’s top four, but only three points separated fifth from ninth. One additional win can move a side several places.

A finish between fifth and eighth is therefore a sensible range rather than a safe forecast.

Ulster can push towards its upper end if key players stay available, the set-piece develops, and the bench prevents second-half slides.

There is also an uncomfortable nuance to the Moneyball argument. Ulster are deeper, but they are not obviously stronger everywhere.

Bell was an international-class loosehead. Kok was much more than useful squad depth. Raising the standard of the wider squad is worthwhile, but if the first-choice XV loses too much quality in the process, the ceiling can fall while the floor rises.

Ulster are betting that the balance works in their favour.

Europe brings another calculation. They face Zebre Parma, Bayonne, Perpignan and Dragons in the Challenge Cup pool stage after reaching last season’s final, where Montpellier beat them 59-26 in Bilbao.

Another run is perfectly plausible, but last spring showed the cost of fighting on two fronts with a stretched squad. Greater depth gives Murphy more scope to rotate, but it does not remove the need to prioritise. Ulster have to manage the season as a marathon rather than a series of isolated sprints.

The Irish News asked former players, coaches and experienced rugby voices for their view.

Kieran Campbell, former Ulster and Ireland scrum-half and ex-Ireland U20 head coach: “Ulster to finish in the URC top six and reach the Challenge Cup semi-finals.”

Paddy McAllister, former Ulster prop: “Top four in the URC and Challenge Cup semi-finals.”

Gareth Steenson, the Armagh-born former Exeter Chiefs out-half: “Ulster have looked good in pre-season and should have learned from last year; top eight in the URC and the Challenge Cup knockout stages.”

Will Addison, former Ulster and Ireland back: “Ulster will come third in the league and make the final again in the Challenge Cup.”

Alan Solomons, Ulster’s former head coach and Celtic Cup winner: “A URC play-off place between fifth and eighth; first or second in the Challenge Cup pool and a run to the semi-finals, but no further.”

Mark Robson, veteran rugby commentator: “Seventh in the URC if Ulster avoid injuries to important players, plus a Challenge Cup semi-final; international absences could test the squad.”

Ian Madigan, former Ulster and Ireland out-half: “Third in the URC and Challenge Cup finalists.”

Madigan, Addison and McAllister see scope for a substantial jump, while the others cluster more closely around play-off qualification. The common ground is more revealing than the precise finishing positions: improvement is expected, but how far Ulster travel will depend largely on how the squad withstands the season.

Supporters are in much the same place. In an Irish News survey of 152 respondents, 64 percent predicted a fifth-to-eighth finish and 49 per cent expected at least a Challenge Cup semi-final. It is a measure of mood rather than science, but that mood appears to be one of qualified optimism rather than expectation of transformation.