Wales' shock selection, brutal Six Nations and best region as season predicted

A new season is finally upon us, and there is plenty to get excited about.

The United Rugby Championship and Gallagher Premiership get under way this weekend, with a host of Welsh players ready to make their mark on the domestic stage.

It is also a huge season for Steve Tandy’s Wales, with the Rugby World Cup now just a year away. The next 12 months will go a long way towards shaping the squad and determining where Wales stand heading into the tournament.

So which Welsh region will finish highest in the URC? Who will emerge as the breakthrough player? And what can we expect from Wales over the coming season?

Here are my Welsh rugby predictions for the season ahead.

It is likely to be another hugely challenging season for Steve Tandy’s Wales.

There were encouraging signs towards the end of the Six Nations, particularly in their physicality, which went up several notches.

But the summer tour provided a sobering reminder of the gap that remains, with Wales comfortably beaten by Argentina and South Africa.

The Nations Championship this autumn offers an immediate opportunity to put a win on the board and they simply have to beat Japan in Cardiff. Anything less would represent a significant disappointment.

The task becomes considerably harder against the All Blacks, while Australia are also likely to prove beyond them.

Wales may be more competitive than they were a year ago, but there remains a sizeable gulf between them and the leading Tier One nations.

As for the Six Nations, avoiding a fourth successive Wooden Spoon would constitute progress. Yet their fixture list could hardly be more unforgiving, with France in Paris followed by a trip to Scotland.

They should be competitive against Ireland and England on home soil but at present they lack the power and quality to expect victory against either.

That could leave Wales travelling to Rome in the final round with the Wooden Spoon at stake. It is a game they can win but Italy will be confident of beating Wales on their own patch and I fear it could be another dark day.

Nations Championship: Beat Japan, lose to Australia and New Zealand

The Gloucester backrower led from the front for Wales U20s as captain and looks destined for a successful career at senior level.

Wales U20s head coach Richard Whiffin has previously identified Gwynne as a player who could be a potential bolter for the senior World Cup squad.

Gwynne is a workhorse, very physical and a strong carrier who tends to motivate those around him.

Wales have some depth in the backrow but if he can get regular minutes for Gloucester in the Gallagher Prem then he has a decent chance.

Cardiff punched above their weight last season, finishing sixth in the URC before their campaign came to an end with a quarter-final defeat by the Stormers in Cape Town.

Repeating that achievement will be a considerable challenge, but there is enough quality and continuity in the squad to suggest they should at least be in the play-off conversation when the business end of the season arrives but I fancy they may just miss out.

Cardiff have a settled squad, while Corniel van Zyl and Gethin Jenkins deserve considerable credit for the way they have steered the club over the past year.

There is a settled feel about the side and a clear understanding of what is required.

The backline has plenty of attacking threat, but much could depend on how Cardiff fare up front. Josh McNally, Javan Sebastian, Dan Thomas and Taine Basham will all have important roles to play if Cardiff are to build on last season's success.

They will also carry the added burden of being the only Welsh club in the Investec Champions Cup this season, with a daunting run of fixtures against Northampton Saints, Bath, Stade Français and Montpellier.

Given the gulf in spending power between Cardiff and many of their European rivals, it would be a major surprise if they were able to make a significant impact in the competition.

Champions Cup - Pool stage

The Dragons’ ambition this season is to reach the URC play-offs, but even being in contention for a place in the top eight when the race reaches its decisive stage would represent significant progress.

Filo Tiatia has brought a harder edge to the side and there is a sense of a shift in mentality after several seasons of frustration. A 19-19 draw at Benetton on the opening night was a decent start, although it perhaps should have been more.

The Dragons appear better equipped to compete, although the loss of their talismanic No 8 Aaron Wainwright is a seismic blow. Much will depend on how his replacement, Terrell Peita, copes with the responsibility.

There is more bite in the pack, while the return of South African tighthead Robert Hunt from injury will be warmly welcomed.

Hunt made a significant impact at scrum time last season and his presence should give the Dragons a greater platform from which to build.

They are no longer the pushovers they once were and should improve their win tally, but breaking into the URC play-offs might be a step too far given the strength of the competition.

Their run to the Challenge Cup semi-finals was the highlight of last season and, while repeating that achievement will be difficult, they should at least harbour realistic hopes of emerging from their pool this time around.

Challenge Cup - Round of 16

The reality is that the Welsh regions will always be up against it in the URC.

With no salary cap, they are competing against clubs from nations whose spending power allows them to assemble significantly deeper and more expensive squads.

Of the four Welsh sides, however, the Ospreys look best placed to finish highest.

There was plenty of doom and gloom surrounding the Ospreys last season with the off-field politics adding to the uncertainty and the departures of their two best players, Jac Morgan and Dewi Lake, to Gloucester.

Yet they have recruited impressively given the circumstances.

The Australian internationals Marika Koroibete and Lalakai Foketi should add some much-needed X-factor behind the scrum, while former Wallabies captain Liam Wright looks a particularly astute addition to the back row.

The Ospreys also have a settled coaching group and, of the four Welsh clubs, they undoubtedly have the strongest pack.

Their set-piece should provide a reliable foundation, while they have greater strength in depth than their domestic rivals; although that remains an issue for all four Welsh sides.

A URC quarter-final place is within their reach, while they have the players and structure to mount a serious challenge in the EPCR Challenge Cup.

Challenge Cup - semi-finals

For the Scarlets, the biggest question may be whether they have sufficient strength in depth to cope with the demands of the season.

They are already without influential New Zealand No 8 Fletcher Anderson, props Archer Holz and Corey Domachowski, back-rower Taine Plumtree and outside-half Sam Costelow for the opening game against Cardiff at Parc y Scarlets.

There is plenty of talent in the backline, but the Scarlets’ prospects are likely to hinge on the performance of their pack.

Losing new tighthead signing Chris Apoua to a serious Achilles injury during his first live scrummaging session was a major setback, particularly with the strong-scrummaging Holz also unavailable.

That leaves Harri O’Connor and Gabe Hawley with a significant responsibility, while Henry Thomas provides valuable experience.

The difficulty is that the Scarlets will not have their full complement of players until around Christmas. New signings Cullen Grace and Tom Allen will only arrive after the conclusion of New Zealand’s NPC in November, leaving Nigel Davies with a stretched squad to manage through the opening months.

There are also fresh faces among the coaching staff, with Aaron Dundon arriving from Leinster to take charge of the forwards and Eamon O’Carroll, formerly of St Helen’s, joining as defence coach.

Ultimately, so much depends on whether the pack can stand up to the rigours of the URC.

A place in the URC play-offs might be a step too far this season but a run to the knockout stages of the Challenge Cup represents a more realistic target.

Challenge Cup - quarter-finals

The Ospreys have gone big in the recruitment market and former Wallabies captain Liam Wright could prove to be the best signing made by a Welsh region this season.

There is an element of risk given the 28-year-old has spent the past couple of years battling injury and away from the game, but if he can rediscover the form that earned him international recognition with Australia, the Ospreys will have landed a significant player.

Wright is an outstanding lineout forward and a relentless worker, equally effective in the wider channels as he is in the tight exchanges. He also brings something that cannot easily be bought: leadership.

If Wright hits the ground running in Swansea, his performances could put him into Steve Tandy’s thinking for the next World Cup cycle.

Provided he is not selected by Australia in the meantime, he will become eligible to play for Wales next summer through his grandfather, who was born in Pembroke.

This could be the season in which powerful Wales Under-20s lock Will Evans announces himself on the senior stage.

The 19-year-old giant has been handed a starting role for the Scarlets in their URC opener against Cardiff tomorrow night and will be eager to seize the opportunity.

Evans is an imposing physical presence at 6ft 10in and has some similarities to former Scarlets and Wales lock Jake Ball.

The former Llandovery College pupil is a strong carrier with a real edge to his game, while he is equally happy doing the unglamorous work that creates opportunities for those around him.

He has the raw physical attributes, but there is also a maturity to his game that belies his age.

Evans has also been included in the last two Wales senior squad alignment camps, an indication of the regard in which he is already held within the national set-up.

Jac Morgan and Dewi Lake should both thrive at Gloucester, while Tomos Williams is likely to make his mark at Saracens.

The more intriguing move is Aaron Wainwright’s switch to Leicester Tigers. The Wales No 8 was arguably Wales' best player last season and will now have the benefit of playing in a powerful Leicester pack.

If Wainwright can establish himself in the Tigers’ formidable forward unit, the move has the potential to take his game to another level.

The Dragons lock is a model of consistency and one of Welsh rugby’s unsung heroes.

Carter was excellent when thrown into the Wales side for their narrow Six Nations defeat by Scotland and has since established himself as a first-choice option at international level.

The 25-year-old takes responsibility for the lineout and gets through a huge amount of work around the field, often doing the unglamorous jobs that allow others to flourish.

Second-rows rarely attract the same plaudits as the backs, but Carter has quietly become an important player for Wales and looks set to have a significant role to play as they build towards the World Cup.

This is almost impossible to predict, given how quickly the landscape of Welsh rugby appears to be changing.

The one certainty is that the uncertainty will continue. The restructuring debate is unlikely to disappear quietly and there is every chance it becomes even more contentious in the months ahead.

The WRU’s stated preference is to reduce the number of professional clubs by removing one team in the west, but the situation remains fluid.

With so many moving parts, it would be a brave person who predicted exactly where the goalposts will be by the end of the season.

The Steelmen were last season’s beaten finalists, falling agonisingly short against Llandovery, but they have the ingredients to go one better this time around.

Ebbw Vale are a difficult side to beat, built around a powerful pack and plenty of experience.

They also have a wise old head at scrum-half in former Dragons, Bath and Scarlets player Jonathan Evans, whose know-how could prove invaluable when the pressure mounts.

There is plenty of attacking threat out wide, too, with former Queensland Reds full-back Morgan Rees and former Wales Under-20s wing Harry Rees-Weldon capable of providing the cutting edge needed to turn close games in their favour.