Why Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani has likely already lost NL MVP to Pete Crow-Armstrong

The Los Angeles Dodgers might be the World Series favorites still, but there is some real concern about Shohei Ohtani, who's been out for a few games in a row and has a setback in his attempt to return to the mound.

It's a big loss for the Dodgers to not have Ohtani pitching for them after initially having Cy Young-caliber numbers through July. But it's also now become an issue at the plate, as he's not been in the lineup for a few days now.

Unfortunately for the Dodgers and Ohtani, as USA Today's Bob Nightengale notes, this recent setback and absence from the lineup have likely ended the National League MVP debate, with Pete Crow-Armstrong practically guaranteed to win the award now.

"It was an unbelievable run, but Shohei Ohtani's bid for a fourth consecutive MVP award is over, with his recent struggles with nagging injuries preventing him from returning to the mound," Nightengale writes. "It's Pete Crow-Armstrong's award to lose."

Ohtani has posted 6.5 bWAR this season and has been one of the best players in baseball overall. Even though he's missed some time and hasn't pitched since early July, his season-long numbers are more than good enough to justify MVP votes.

The only issue for Ohtani is that Crow-Armstrong has been on an all-time heater this season. He has put up 8.6 bWAR for the Chicago Cubs so far, and has plenty of incredible statistics to warrant an MVP bid; it's his for the taking.

For Ohtani to win this award, PCA would have to go into a major slump to end the season, and Ohtani would need to return and have one of the best months of his MLB career at the plate.

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A return to the mound is unlikely, which has already effectively cemented his status as the runner-up to Crow-Armstrong in the MVP race. Combined now with his absence from the lineup, Ohtani's odds have, understandably, plummeted.

He was the far-and-away best player in the first half of the 2026 MLB season, but with under a month to go, Ohtani has fallen to second fiddle behind Crow-Armstrong.

Crow-Armstrong's offensive bWAR this season is 7.1, while his defensive bWAR is 1.9. Ohtani only has 3.6 offensive bWAR and -1.2 defensive bWAR as a full-time DH. His 3.0 pitching bWAR won't be enough to make up the difference.

It's unfortunate, but barring a miracle, it's looking like Ohtani will miss out on the NL MVP this season, with Crow-Armstrong's production being too great for Ohtani to match as the 2026 MLB season comes to a close.