Why the Chicago Cubs should say no to Tarik Skubal

There aren’t too many people who actually believe that the Chicago Cubs will end up bagging prized free agent pitcher Tarik Skubal.

The two-time Cy Young Award-winning starting pitcher is expected to command upwards of $45 million a year over an eight-year contract when he becomes a free agent at the end of this 2026 season. Some estimates put him squarely at the $50 million-per-season mark.

It’s just not in the Cubs’ DNA to pay that much for anybody, but especially not for a pitcher.

Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has shied away from laying out big money for big-ticket pitching and has come up short in his efforts to do so when he’s explored the possibility—notably with Dylan Cease last offseason and closer Tanner Scott the offseason before that.

Oct 3, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) throws during the third inning of game one of the NLDS against the Atlanta Braves for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Uniqlo Field at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

MLB Network’s Jon Morosi echoed the skepticism when it comes to Chicago spending big on Skubal in an interview with 104.3 The Score’s Spiegel and Holmes show.

“I think on the pitching aspect of this, you need a little bit more swing-and-miss, you need probably a true No. 1,” Morosi said. “And they’re gonna honestly have to look at it and say, ‘Are we ready to go toe to toe with the New York Mets and maybe the Dodgers in the bidding for Skubal?’ I tend to think they will fall short, but that is the type of person — they are a Skubal away, in my opinion, a Skubal or a true ace away.”

That’s a sobering reality check, but it’s not exactly a surprise that the Cubs wouldn’t win a bidding war with teams like the Dodgers or Mets. In this particular case, though, it’s probably a good thing that they won’t be in the running for Skubal.

Jul 18, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer walks on the sidelines before a baseball game between the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Let’s face it, the Cubs are more than just one starting pitcher away from making a serious postseason run—even if that one pitcher is a Hall of Fame-level ace.

Even pushing the boundaries of optimism, the Cubs probably need at least two or three starters heading into 2027 and a reliable back-of-bullpen reliever. Spending $360-$400 million on one pitcher this offseason would probably close the door on any other high-end (or even mid-level) pitching purchases.

With their entire end-of-season rotation likely hitting free agency and lots of starting pitching uncertainty left behind, the team needs bulk and not just one key asset. There WILL be a good amount of money coming off the books, but using half of it on one player just wouldn’t be smart.

For what the Cubs would spend on signing Skubal, they could get Michael King for the front of the rotation and then could re-sign David Peterson for the back of the rotation, while also possibly having enough to sign someone like Adrian Morejon for a closer role.

At this point in the baseball year, all of this is just wild speculation. But there’s no denying the fact that the Cubs need pitching and that their farm system will not be contributing much to filling any major league pitching staff holes in 2027. Hoyer and company will have to go out and spend, even if they don’t take a stab at landing the biggest fish available.

This article first appeared on ChiCitySports and was syndicated with permission.