SP+ Predicts Must-Win Virginia vs SMU Game

There is a great big problem for Virginia. Against No. 24 SMU and its elite passing offense (third-best nationally), the Cavaliers could be missing three starting defensive backs.

Jacobie Henderson was cleared to play after suffering a shoulder injury at Syracuse, but Omillio Agard is out for the season — plus, now Brandyn Hillman and Corey Costner have been downgraded to doubtful for the game.

As a result, Virginia is a big underdog. SP+ gives the Cavaliers a 33% chance to win (which is higher than ESPN's Football Power Index), but a discouraging figure regardless. SP+ favors SMU by 8.5 points and predicts a 30-23 Virginia loss.

The Cavaliers and Mustangs have only squared off once — a 33-7 defeat at Scott Stadium in 2024. SMU went on to reach the College Football Playoff while Virginia squaddled along to a 5-7 finish. Since then, things have changed.

Coach Rhett Lashlee's Mustangs have been a consistent force in the ACC, but they have been prone to dropping a few costly losses. SMU had the inside track to reach the conference title game last season, but a last-second loss at Cal sunk the Mustangs into a five-way tie for second place that was won by Duke.

This year, SMU lost at Louisville, and barely scraped by the likes of Florida State and Boston College. The Mustangs are in need of a big win and positive momentum. That is also applicable to the Cavaliers.

On paper, this is an elite SMU passing attack against an elite Virginia pass defense. However, through six games (half of which have been against poor competition), it is difficult to say that statistics tell the full story.

Against Syracuse, the Cavaliers defense struggled to contain a third-string quarterback for most of the first half. That is particularly concerning considering that Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings has three games over 330 passing yards this season.

For the first time all year, Virginia is a multi-score underdog. It is not all that surprising given that the Cavaliers have been beyond mediocre on the road and have not played a stellar game against a Power Four opponent since the season opener.

The Cavaliers, once again, are going to have to prove themselves. SMU is in the same boat. Had the Mustangs not started the season as a ranked team, they probably would be unranked at this current moment in the season.