UCL supercomputer: Man City leapfrog Bayern, PSG three-peat chances slip

'Lots of draws' - Simeone says Man Utd are a good side despite slow start to the season

As 32 teams gear up for the next round of the league phase with TNT Sports on HBO Max, the latest forecasts have been made for the potential destination of the trophy come May.

Arsenal remain favourites following a 1-0 win away at Napoli in their opening match, with a one-in-five chance according to the statisticians.

The Gunners welcome Ligue 1 side Lille to Emirates Stadium next, hoping to make it two wins from two and continue a remarkable winning run in the league phase that stretches 13 games since a defeat to Inter in November 2024.

Domestic rivals Manchester City are now up to second favourites, leapfrogging Bayern Munich having been given an 18% chance of lifting the trophy for the second time, with the Germans rated at 17%.

City, who beat Porto last time around, face holders Paris Saint-Germain at Etihad Stadium, in their first home match since being found guilty of breaching Premier League financial rules last month.

Back-to-back winners PSG have seen their chances of a three-peat drift, dropping from a 7.7% to 6% chance of winning and down to fifth favourites, with Barcelona taking their place as the fourth most likely winner on 9%.

Opta UEFA Champions League supercomputer prediction as of October 12

The reigning champions of La Liga have made a perfect start to the season with eight wins from eight to kick off their title defence at home, and punctuated that with a thumping 5-1 win over Feyenoord to kick off their European campaign in style.

Bitter rivals Real Madrid find themselves seventh with just a 4% chance of adding to their record 15 titles this season.

According to Opta, Liverpool have also been given a 6% chance of emerging as competition winners, the same as PSG.

The Reds travel to Austria to face LASK following victory over Atletico Madrid on Matchday 1.

A thumping 4-0 victory over debutants Sabah hasn’t been enough to boost United’s chances, with Michael Carrick’s since given a 3% chance of winning the tournament ahead of their trip to Spain to face Atleti.

The same 3% chance is given to both Aston Villa and Inter to round off the top 10. The Villans host Fenerbahce after their opening day win over Club Brugge.

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